Japan’s new finance minister has indicated that he would like to see the yen depreciate ‘a bit more’ after falling 9% from it’s recent high. This is in contradiction to Japan’s recently retired finance minister, and likely means further depreciation for the Yen. I first recommended shorting the yen on 28 October in my piece […]
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Asia/China
Hearing about GM’s new battery plant I started reminiscing about an article I wrote back in July of 2008. Will this movement in the U.S. have the same impact it had on Japan? We will have to wait and see.
Inflation has begun creeping back into the China’s heating economy, and it was only a matter of time before the government’s hand was forced to tighten exceptionally loose polices. In 2010, a dance between inflation, growth, and government policy will guide Chinese equity markets. Coming into the year growth led the dance with policy and […]
I mentioned this morning that major snow storms in China could place additional pressure on domestic Chinese food prices. I have since received several inquiries about which companies could benefit from this developing pricing dynamic pricing, and here is one answer: Let me take you back to this article on RealMoney, I published on October […]
China’s ’50-year’ snow storm could cause more than just delays in the country; the last time the country was hit with a similar storm food inflation spiked. In the past Chinese food prices have had significant influence over the country’s CPI. It is still too early to measure the full and long-term impact of the […]
Today I wanted to quickly highlight the performance of my equity based trading strategies around my global macro economic investment thesis. Emerging markets: I continue to believe that emerging-market growth and equity performance — especially in countries with a strong consumer base — will continue to outpace developed nations in 2010. Therefore, you should still […]
Here is an excerpt from my Real Money column being published this morning: In 1909 the completion of the Metropolitan Life Building—the world’s tallest building—coincided with the beginning of a two year recession in the US. Between 1929 and 1931 40 Wall Street, the Empire State Building, and the Chrysler Building were all erected in […]
An excerpt from today’s column on RealMoney… “In tune with the Thanksgiving spirit–eating–I want to discuss a budding topic that’s garnering more attention lately from a growing number of my clients: food, or more specifically, agriculture. There are many ways to tackle this topic, but what I wanted to highlight today is the growing caloric […]
Since China opened the flood gates to foreign investment in the 1990s, the country has significantly outpaced the developed world, especially the US, in terms of economic growth (see Chinese vs. US real GDP growth chart). Consequences of China’s success have included increased urbanization (see population chart) and a burgeoning middle class. Never before in […]
Here is another article by Andy Xie–always an interesting read–former Morgan Stanley economist, who predicted the credit crisis well before it came to fruition. In this article Andy highlights how money supply growth is supporting a boom in asset prices, which in turn is bolstering the economy. He goes on to compare central banks supplying […]