Keep an eye on these government bond auctions, especially for Spain and Portugal, as a bad auction can provide the catalyst for further risk aversion: June 9th: 09:00 GMT Germany: 2y Schatz Auction €6bn 09:30 GMT Portugal: 3y and 10y auctions €1.5bn 09:30 GMT UK: New 2020 Gilt £3.75bn 17:00 GMT US: 10y Note Auction $21bn June 10th: […]
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MikeMcD82
The aggregated spreads of Europe’s weakest peripheries plus Belgium are on track to test their pre-bailout levels, as investors question whether or not a default will become necessary and what contagion effects it might have. The biggest concern is that a default could lead to a Lehman like effect halting liquidity as banks and investors […]
Nearly 28% of all income received in the U.S. comes in one form or another from the U.S. government. As of April 2010, government wages combined with government transfer payments total 27.8% of total income in the US. Breaking it down further, government wages plus transfers equals nearly 67% of total private sector wages. These […]
Food stamp usage has climbed to new highs in the U.S. with over 40mn subscribers–roughly 15% of the total population–as of this morning’s release for March. The rise in volumes coincided with an explosion in costs for the program to $5.4bn/month from $3.6bn/month at the start of 2009. Surging food stamp use or what is referred […]
A precipitous decline in money supply could be choking the U.S.’s economic recovery, while supporting deflationary fears. While the Fed no longer tracks M3, one of the broadest measures of the U.S. money supply, professional forecasters estimate the index has fallen 9.6% on an annualized basis from February through April; matching what was last seen […]
NOAA announced its 2010 Hurricane forecast today catching markets off-guard with an expectation of 8 to 14 Hurricanes during this year’s season–much higher than average. The forecast caused natural gas futures to close higher after falling earlier in the day due to inventory data. While the implication of this forecast can’t be ignored, NOAA has […]
Not since June 2008 has the housing sector been completely devoid of some form of tax incentive to help bolster sales, until now that is and it shows. MBA purchase applications have taken a precipitous drop over the past two weeks falling to levels not seen since the end of 1997. The government’s approach of […]
Rumors have been spreading across trading floors that the Fed may lower the penalty for using its dollar liquidity swap line to reduce stress in the interbank market. As I mentioned in a previous note, a 100bp ‘penalty’ over the overnight indexed swap (OIS) rate for the Fed’s dollar liquidity swap line is preventing the […]
After stabilizing from 5/20 to 5/24 AUDJPY’s decline has returned with a vengeance falling to 72.88 from 74.63 a day prior. The currency pairs stability over the last few days led some to believe the market could be approaching a bottom. Other notable risk indicators moving this morning include the TED spread, now up to […]