Durable Goods Orders Rise Above Expectations
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New orders for durable goods rose by 4.9% in July, compared to a consensus forecast of +3.3%, and a previous revised decline of -1.3%. This is the index’s largest increment since July 2007. This month’s increment was bolstered by the US government’s popular ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program and a significant rise in commercial aircraft orders after a 30% dive last month. Excluding transportation equipment, durable goods would have risen by only +0.8%. Considering the well rounded increases in this month’s data, the factory sector looks set to continue on the long-road to recovery.
| M/M | |||
| Jul-09 | Jun-09 | May-09 | |
| Total: | |||
| Shipments | 2.0 | 0.7 | -2.7 |
| New Orders | 4.9 | -1.3 | 1.3 |
| Excluding transportation: | |||
| Shipments | 2.2 | 0.4 | -1.4 |
| New Orders | 0.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| Excluding defense: | |||
| Shipments | 2.5 | 0.3 | -3.0 |
| New Orders | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Manufacturing with unfilled orders: | |||
| Shipments | 1.0 | 1.5 | -2.1 |
| New Orders | 5.8 | -1.6 | 3.2 |
| Primary metals: | |||
| Shipments | 6.3 | 1.7 | -3.2 |
| New Orders | 2.6 | 12.2 | -0.2 |
| Fabricated metal products: | |||
| Shipments | 0.6 | 0.8 | -2.4 |
| New Orders | 2.8 | 0.2 | -2.6 |
| Machinery: | |||
| Shipments | -3.7 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| New Orders | -6.6 | 4.5 | 7.2 |
| Computers and electronic products: | |||
| Shipments | 7.4 | 0.2 | -2.6 |
| New Orders | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Computers and related products: | |||
| Shipments | 2.7 | 0.3 | -0.5 |
| New Orders | -2.8 | 0.5 | 15.9 |
| Communications equipment: | |||
| Shipments | 6.8 | 11.7 | -2.0 |
| New Orders | 9.4 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| Semiconductors: | |||
| Shipments | 43.0 | -14.9 | -14.5 |
| New Orders | (NA) | (NA) | (NA) |
| Electrical equipment, appliances, and components: | |||
| Shipments | 1.7 | 0.3 | -3.7 |
| New Orders | 5.3 | 1.7 | -2.0 |
| Transportation equipment: | |||
| Shipments | 1.4 | 1.5 | -6.5 |
| New Orders | 18.4 | -12.0 | 2.9 |
| Motor vehicles and parts: | |||
| Shipments | 2.7 | 0.1 | -9.0 |
| New Orders | 0.9 | -0.2 | -8.4 |
| Nondefense aircraft and parts: | |||
| Shipments | 5.9 | 1.8 | -7.0 |
| New Orders | 107.2 | -30.0 | 60.4 |
| Defense aircraft and parts: | |||
| Shipments | -9.6 | 8.9 | 7.4 |
| New Orders | -18.8 | 30.2 | 0.3 |
| All other durable goods: | |||
| Shipments | 1.9 | -0.2 | -0.4 |
| New Orders | 2.4 | 0.1 | -1.0 |
| Capital goods: | |||
| Shipments | 0.1 | 1.6 | -0.8 |
| New Orders | 9.5 | -5.7 | 8.8 |
| Nondefense capital goods: | |||
| Shipments | 0.8 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| New Orders | 8.6 | -0.4 | 9.1 |
| Excluding aircraft: | |||
| Shipments | 0.5 | 1.3 | -0.4 |
| New Orders | -0.3 | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| Defense capital goods: | |||
| Shipments | -3.6 | 4.9 | 0.4 |
| New Orders | 14.8 | -29.2 | 7.1 |
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