Jobless Claims Hit a Roadblock

What had been an improving trend in initial jobless claims has hit a roadblock with claims rising this morning to by 22K to 496K .  Recent volatility can be attributed to everything from weather to a backlog of claims in California, but in the end still points to further deterioration for the monthly employment report.  Typically, initial claims would need to fall to a level below the 400K to in order to support gains in non-farm payrolls.  Prior to December most believed this would be a reality in the near-future, but with claims now struggling to move below 450K the market will have to wait.

Unfortunately, the same bad weather that impacted claims in February will likely have a similar impact on the month’s payroll data.  In January payrolls declined by -20K, and I expect this decline will be even greater in February.  I expect the market will need to wait yet another month before receiving data supporting a nascent recovery for the labor sector.

Initial Claims vs. Unemployment Rate

Source: Bloomberg