Wavering Sentiment Likely to Raise Fears Among Retailers

The preliminary November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was reported at 66.0 versus a 70.6 reading in October, and 73.5 in September–well below expectations.  As I warned in my economist first look, this index could face some downside risk as survey participants would have been exposed to a worse than anticipated employment report last Friday in addition to what have been volatile equity markets and rising oil prices.  Wavering confidence will be a big concern going into the holiday shopping season as consumers cash strapped consumers remain hesitant to undertake large expenditures.