September Housing Starts finished the month at an annual rate of 590K (+0.5%). At the same time, August Housing Starts were revised down to 587K versus its original release of 598K. Housing permits declined by -1.2%, to 573K. Unlike starts, August permits experienced a modest upward revision to 580K from 579K. Single-family starts rose +3.9%, […]
Archive:
October 2009
On the economic front the market will be encountering some important housing related releases in addition to the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday. On the housing front, on Monday the market will get a peak at October’s NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, followed by housing starts on Tuesday. However, the most important housing release of […]
September’s CPI rose +0.2%, compared to a +0.4% increment a month prior. Core CPI increased +0.2%. This was generally in-line with the Bloomberg consensus forecast. Food prices fell -0.1% during the month while energy prices rose +0.6%. These modest gains continue to indicate that some deflationary risk remains on the table, and inflation should not […]
Retail sales fell -1.5% in September, versus a revised +2.2% (previously +2.7) increment in August. Excluding autos sales rose +0.5% in September, compared to a revised +1.0% (previously +1.1%) change in August . Despite a still worsening employment situation, over the last several months retail sales (ex-autos) have demonstrated an upward trend, albeit at a […]
This is a very short global macro overview of today’s markets. I do not recommend any of the trades mentioned in this report, but hope they help reinforce your own view or help you generate some news ideas. Monetary policy around the globe remains easy, providing ample liquidity and room for credit growth. Additionally, fiscal […]
Despite a holiday on Monday, we have a busy week on all fronts, combing a deep economic calendar with a flurry of critical earnings releases. On the economics front the two most important indicators are retail sales on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday. September’s retail sales could face some negative pressure on the back of […]
Initial Claims declined 33K to 521K for the week ending Oct. 03. This was much better than the consensus estimate of 540K. This was the lowest reading since early Janurary 2009. It is unclear whether or not this is the start of a trend of significant improvement in claims or just a seasonal quirk Therefore, […]
September’s non-manufacturing ISM came in this morning at 50.9, compared to a previous reading of 48.4. This is the index’s highest reading since May 2008. this was inline with market expectations. September’s Employment Index rose to 44.3 from 43.5 last month. The standalone Business Index fell slightly to 55.1 from 51.3. The Prices Paid Index […]
Based on last week’s negative performance on the back of several pieces of melancholy economic news, some investors may argue September has come late this year. Looking ahead, we have a pretty quiet week on the data front, which may cause investors, still trying to heal from last week’s wounds, to place added emphasis on […]
In September non-farm payrolls declined 263k, versus a consensus forecast of -175k, and a revised decline in August of -201K. Payrolls have now declined for 21 consecutive months. Over the last 21 months 7.2mn people have lost their jobs. September’s unemployment rate rose to 9.8% from 9.7%, this was inline with expectations, but the highest […]