This week brings the onset of a notoriously bad month for returns, and given the week’s vast array of critical data, the ball is sure to start rolling in one direction or another. First let me apologize if this week’s calendar seems somewhat abridged, as I am on vacation, and am writing it amid the […]
Archive:
August 2009
The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment number was revised up to 65.7 from 63.2, compared to a reading of 66.0 in July. August’s current conditions index finished at 66.6, compared to a preliminary reading of 64.9, and 70.5 in July. The expectations index was revised up to 65.0 versus 62.1, and a reading of […]
Personal income was flat in July, compared to a consensus forecast of 0.1%, and a previous decline of -1.1%. Disposable income was unchanged. Despite the government’s ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program consumer expenditures rose by 0.2%%, compared to a consensus forecast of 0.3%, and a previous reading of 0.6%. Continued weakness in the job’s market […]
I was recently passed an article published in USA Today, which discussed some of the challenges states are facing due to dwindling state coffers. Several states, including even New York, have decided to close down correctional facilities and reduce staff to ward off the budget shortfalls. My first thought was that the prisoners impacted would […]
US 2Q09 GDP remained unchanged from the advance reading of -1.0%, a month earlier. The consensus estimate for the revision was -1.5%. Despite what was no change in the headline number, there were revisions to the data behind it with exports and consumption being revised up, while inventories and non-residential spending were revised down. […]
New home sales rose 9.6% to a rate of 433K in July, compared to a consensus forecast of 390K, and a previous reading of 384K units. The rate of sales increased in July to its highest level since September 2008. The inventory of new homes fell to 7.5 months from 8.5 a month prior. The […]
New orders for durable goods rose by 4.9% in July, compared to a consensus forecast of +3.3%, and a previous revised decline of -1.3%. This is the index’s largest increment since July 2007. This month’s increment was bolstered by the US government’s popular ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program and a significant rise in commercial aircraft orders […]
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 54.1 in August, versus a Bloomberg consensus forecast of 48.0, and a previous reading of 47.4. This is the highest level since December 2007. The August Present Situation Index rose to 24.9 versus 23.3, while the August Expectations Index rose to 73.5 from 63.4. Weakness in the […]
The Case-Shiller 10 Metro-Area Composite Index rose 1.4% in June. A month prior the 10 and 20 Metro-Area Indices rose by +0.4% and +0.5%, respectively. These were the indices first increments since June 2006. This morning’s rise is consistent with other housing related data that seems to imply a bottom and modest recovery for the […]
Capesize rates have come under considerable pressure over the past week with forward contracts losing roughly 14% of their value over concerns on industry fundamentals. Despite what has already been 5 consecutive days of declines for capesize rates, industry experts believe this week could bring even more downward pressure. According to Lloyd’s List, a leading […]