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Retail Sales

Building Material Sales Add Volatility to Retail Sales

Unusual volatility in the sale of building materials has exaggerated retail sales over the past three months.  While this doesn’t change the prevailing trend, sales in both April and March would have appeared far less optimistic than reported.   Building material sales climbed 8.0% in both March and April-a pace not seen since March 2004-plummting -9.3% […]

Retail Sales Just Ain’t What They Used To Be:

On the surface the investors should be celebrating April’s higher than estimated retail sales growth, but a look behind the curtain reveals a slightly different picture.  The retail sales control group, which the government uses to calculate GDP, actually fell -0.2% during the month, its first decline since July 2009 (see chart).  The control group […]

Preparing for Retail

On the surface, a recovery in retail sales is not only a harbinger for stronger economic growth, but could prove to be the missing link for job creation (see chart).  Climbing out of the deepest recession since the Great Depression, consumption growth has been surprisingly tepid, at least partially due to companies’ lack of confidence […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Retail Sales & The Start of Earnings

With employment out of the way—for now—onto earnings; Alcoa is scheduled to kick of the 4Q09 earnings season with its report on Monday.  Earnings might be stealing most of the show this week, but don’t count out economic data with the release of a critically important retail sales release on Thursday and a torrent of […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Black or Red Friday?

This week is relatively quiet on the economic front, following last week’s tsunami of data culminating in a much better than anticipated employment release.  This week’s theme is the consumers, who have the potential to stymie last week’s positive sentiment depending on sales strength during the Black Friday shopping weekend.  The week’s primary release will […]

October’s Retail Sales: The Devil’s in the Details

As I mentioned in my week ahead, retail sales would likely set the pace for the week, and we received the data this morning. Retail sales rose +1.4% in October, compared to a revised -2.3% change in September (originally -1.5%). This was well above the latest Bloomberg consensus forecast of +0.9%,however, this good news was […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Retail Sales will set the Pace

The last full week in November brings with it its fair share of economic data, Fed talk, and a few important earnings stragglers.  The general themes of the week will be housing, manufacturing, inflation, and the consumer.  On the economic front, October’s retail sales—released on Monday—should steal the show, followed up by October’s industrial production […]

Retail Sales Data Indicates a Strengthening Consumer

Retail sales fell -1.5% in September, versus a revised +2.2% (previously +2.7) increment in August.  Excluding autos sales rose +0.5% in September, compared to a revised +1.0% (previously +1.1%) change in August . Despite a still worsening employment situation, over the last several months retail sales (ex-autos) have demonstrated an upward trend, albeit at a […]

US Economics Week Ahead: A Shortened Week with a Big Punch

Despite a holiday on Monday, we have a busy week on all fronts, combing a deep economic calendar with a flurry of critical earnings releases.  On the economics front the two most important indicators are retail sales on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday.  September’s retail sales could face some negative pressure on the back of […]

Retail Sales & NY Manf. Survey Better Than Expected; PPI Higher than Anticipated

August’s Retail Sales rose 2.7%, compared to a consensus forecast of +2.0% and a previous reading in July of -0.1%.  The ex-autos component of retail sales  came in at 1.1%, versus a consensus forecast of +0.4% and a previous reading of -0.6% in July.  Therefore, what is typically a bump in sales due to better […]