This week brings the onset of a notoriously bad month for returns, and given the week’s vast array of critical data, the ball is sure to start rolling in one direction or another. First let me apologize if this week’s calendar seems somewhat abridged, as I am on vacation, and am writing it amid the […]
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payrolls
Payrolls in the US fell by -247,000 in July, with the unemployment rate moving to 9.4% from 9.5%. This compares to last month’s revised change of -443K, and a consensus forecast of -300K. This number exceeds both the streets and my own expectations. The drop in the unemployment rate was caused by a reported decrease […]
Following last week’s mixed data, the market will be searching for indications of the strength and timing of a US economic recovery — and there will be plenty of places to look. In contrast to the relative quiet of the past several weeks, a slew of economic indicators pertaining to jobs and manufacturing should be […]
June’s ADP release came in at -473,000, implying there could be some downward pressure placed on forecasts for tomorrow’s payroll data. Currently, the market is forecasting a -350,000 change in payrolls; I believe we could see this number actually come in around -440,000, which is still much better than the six month average, but below […]
Despite the shortened work week, we have a rather busy schedule of US economic data releases, climaxing with Thursday’s US employment data. Last month’s payroll data caught the market by surprise coming in well above expectations, demonstrating the lowest level of job losses since September 2008. But, the big question remains, was this start of […]