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Monetary Policy

Morgan Stanley Expects Strong Tightening from Canada

Sophia Drossos, the co-head of global FX strategy at Morgan Stanley, believes Canada will soon begin tightening rates based on the Central Bank’s inflationary concerns. Sophia said, “We’re looking for them to deliver 50 basis points rate hikes in the second quarter, and the market is slowly coming around to our point of view because the […]

This Morning’s Tightening in China Does Not Bode Well for Chinese Equities in 2010

Inflation has begun creeping back into the China’s heating economy, and it was only a matter of time before the government’s hand was forced to tighten exceptionally loose polices. In 2010, a dance between inflation, growth, and government policy will guide Chinese equity markets. Coming into the year growth led the dance with policy and […]

A Brief Global Macro View on the World’s Markets

This is a very short global macro overview of today’s markets. I do not recommend any of the trades mentioned in this report, but hope they help reinforce your own view or help you generate some news ideas. Monetary policy around the globe remains easy, providing ample liquidity and room for credit growth. Additionally, fiscal […]

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged, But Begins to Scrap Treasury Purchase Program

As expected the Fed announced no changes to the target range for the federal funds rate, which currently stands at between 0% and 0.25%. The market was trading up  prior to the announcement on what was generally expected to be a more constructive economic outlook from the Fed.  In fact the Fed did seem more […]

Chinese Monetary Policy vs. Inflation FIGHT!

*FX data updated on March 27th 2008 Policy makers in China have not only continued their anti-inflationary rhetoric, but have started acting on it. We have seen the RMB reach several new highs verse the USD in recent days (7.01). Additionally, Chinese authorities have increased reserve requirements for the second time this year by 50bp […]

Inflation, Inflation, Inflation

Inflation, we have been talking about, the market has been talking about it, but has the Fed? In short the answer is yes, but it appears the market may not think so. For the first time since its introduction in 1997, the 5-year TIP traded at a negative yield, implying a significant lack of confidence […]

Fed Cuts & Inflation

*Sorry for the delay in posting we were experiencing serious computer issues One of the questions on everybodys’ minds is how high would inflation need to go before the Fed would reconsider any further rate cuts. During the recent months’ we have seen increasing down side risks to the US growth forecast, while at the […]