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Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claim’s ‘New Equilibrium’ Can Benefit Payrolls

As tomorrow morning’s employment report approaches I wanted to take a quick look at the relationship between the four week moving average of initial jobless claims and the change in payrolls. As a general rule of thumb significant sustained job growth cannot occur until claims move below 400K. However, in March payrolls grew at 162K, […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Housing Side Story & A Special Election

This week will primarily focus on earnings, with housing data acting as an intriguing side story. Companies expected to report earnings this week include: AMR Inc. (AMR), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), CSX (CSX), EBay (EBAY), GE (GE), Goldman-Sachs (GS), Google (GOOG) IBM (IBM), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Wells Fargo (WFC). The housing side […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Retail Sales & The Start of Earnings

With employment out of the way—for now—onto earnings; Alcoa is scheduled to kick of the 4Q09 earnings season with its report on Monday.  Earnings might be stealing most of the show this week, but don’t count out economic data with the release of a critically important retail sales release on Thursday and a torrent of […]

US Economics Week Ahead: 2010 Starts with a Bang

It is a good thing investors will have the entire weekend to recover from their New Year’s celebrations, because 2010 is starting with a bang, at least in terms of economic data.  Undoubtedly, the week’s most critical release will be Friday’s employment report, where excitement is building that payrolls could show their first monthly advance […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Quiet for the Holidays

The last week of 2009 bears some good news for investors, and that is there isn’t much of it.  The week ahead could very well be the quietest week of 2009.  However, not all is still, there are several quasi-important releases related to housing, consumer confidence, and manufacturing.  Data-centric investors will be analyzing the Dallas […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Retailers not Dreaming of a White Christmas

Retailers are not dreaming of a white Christmas.  Whether a snowstorm impacting the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend will impact an arguably lackluster holiday shopping season is yet to be seen.  But, bad weather does have a tendency of keeping would be shoppers home, however, these shoppers will still have access to online stores, but given […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Black or Red Friday?

This week is relatively quiet on the economic front, following last week’s tsunami of data culminating in a much better than anticipated employment release.  This week’s theme is the consumers, who have the potential to stymie last week’s positive sentiment depending on sales strength during the Black Friday shopping weekend.  The week’s primary release will […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Jobs to the Rescue?

This week investors face a barrage of data in addition to Chairman Bernanke’s Senate confirmation hearing.  On the economic front, Friday’s employment report should steal the show followed closely Tuesday’s manufacturing ISM release. Both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM reports have indicated expansion over the past three months, and should again in November, albeit at […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Is There Time for Turkey?

The market will be providing a cornucopia of data this week centered on Tuesday and Wednesday, which you can mull over as you begin brining your turkeys—as an aside here’s the recipe I will be following this year.  Also, I wrote an interesting column on Friday for Real Money titled ‘Talking Turkey on Agricultural Trends’ […]