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initial claims

Jobless Claims Hit a Roadblock

What had been an improving trend in initial jobless claims has hit a roadblock with claims rising this morning to by 22K to 496K .  Recent volatility can be attributed to everything from weather to a backlog of claims in California, but in the end still points to further deterioration for the monthly employment report.  […]

Claims Unchanged

Initial jobless claims came in unchanged this morning at -505K, while its overall downward trend continues to indicate that fewer people are losing their jobs.  This should help decelerate the climb in the unemployment rate and decline in payrolls, until they eventually peak some time during the first half of 2010.  It is very likely […]

Existing Home Sales Show Unexpected Decline

Existing home sales for August fell by 2.7% to a 5.10mn annualized selling rate, compared to a Bloomberg consensus forecast of 5.35mn and a rate of 5.24mn in July.This is the first time in four months the index has experienced a decline. Single-family sales declined 2.8% in August to a rate of 4.48mn versus 4.61 […]

Initial Claims Show Modest Decline

Initial claims this week fell by 4K this week declining to 570, this was above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 562K.  But, the 4wk moving average reached its highest level in  7wks at 571.25K.  Last week’s number was revised to 570K from 574K.  Continuing claims rose 92K reaching 6.23mn.  Initial claims should marginally improve over […]

Initial Jobless Claims Rise More Than Anticipated

Initial jobless claims rose this morning by 15K to 576K compared to last week’s number revised number of 561K, and a consensus forecast of 550K.  This is the second consecutive week claims have unexpectedly risen.  The 4wk moving average moved up by 4,250 to 570K.  Despite the rise over the past two weeks, claims should […]

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise, Retail Sales Decline, & Foreclosures Are Up…

Initial jobless claims rose to 4K this week to 558K, compared to a previous revised reading of 554K and a Bloomberg consensus forecast of 543K.  This number has been trending to lower, which indicates a slowing improvement for the US labor market.  But, claims still remains far from healthy levels, and still indicates significant deterioration […]

Jobless Claims Drop More Than Expected

Initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, fell 38K to 550K, compared to a street consensus of 575K.  The week prior’s number was revised up to 588K from 584K.  This points to continued improvement in the labor market from what. however,  is a rather dismal base.  Claims at these levels still point toward […]

US Week Ahead: Jobs & Manufacturing

Following last week’s mixed data, the market will be searching for indications of the strength and timing of a US economic recovery — and there will be plenty of places to look.  In contrast to the relative quiet of the past several weeks, a slew of economic indicators pertaining to jobs and manufacturing should be […]

Claims Continue to Rise, Due to Erroneous Adjustment Factors

Initial Claims rose 25K to 584K, as the index continues to adjust for erroneous seasonal adjustment factors stemming from early auto plant closures.  The good news these askew effects have by now likely all been washed out, so we should once again be able to rely on claims as a reliable indicator.  On that note, […]

Initial Claims Climb 30K to 554K

As I anticipated, and explained in my US Week Ahead, initial claims experienced a significant uptick this morning, which will likely be continued next week. In reality, this increment was probably due to a correction in what has been overly optimistic data stemming from erroneous seasonal adjustment factors. Fed Chairman Bernanke in his recent testimony […]