“Dear all: One Chinese official apparently leaks May macro data According to Reuters, a senior Chinese government official leaked some key macro data during an internal investor conference. If confirmed, it will be one of the largest leakages in China in two years. Official numbers are yet to be released. Relevant numbers are for CPI, […]
Archive:
Inflation
A precipitous decline in money supply could be choking the U.S.’s economic recovery, while supporting deflationary fears. While the Fed no longer tracks M3, one of the broadest measures of the U.S. money supply, professional forecasters estimate the index has fallen 9.6% on an annualized basis from February through April; matching what was last seen […]
Rising producer prices eventually translate into higher consumer prices as businesses are forced to pass on a portion if not all of the price increments to their customers. So what you might be asking, this morning’s PPI indicated that producer prices fell -0.1% on a monthly basis. While this is true the PPI is broken […]
Rampant risk aversion, receding energy prices, and a USD rally have led to significant steepening in the short-end of the U.S. breakeven curve, with the potential for more to come ahead of next week’s CPI release (see chart). So long as risks in Europe continue to escalate and CPI growth comes in at or below […]
The wheels of tightening may be gaining momentum in China, after February’s higher than anticipated inflation release. High inflation leading to negative real deposit rates may entice investors to withdraw deposits and invest in more speculative assets, potentially spurring what is arguably already a bubble in the country’s housing sector. I believe that China has […]
Recently, concerns have been mounting over whether or not the Fed may need to consider a more hawkish stance over potential inflationary pressure. Increments over the past several days in the price indices for both the Manufacturing ISM and Non-Manufacturing ISM have only exacerbated these worries. To help quantify this situation I dusted off the […]
*FX data updated on March 27th 2008 Policy makers in China have not only continued their anti-inflationary rhetoric, but have started acting on it. We have seen the RMB reach several new highs verse the USD in recent days (7.01). Additionally, Chinese authorities have increased reserve requirements for the second time this year by 50bp […]
Energy prices are showing absolutely no signs of abating; those peak oil theorists may be on to something (at least in the short-run). We just don’t see oil prices coming down significantly without a considerable reduction in demand; through improved fuel efficiency or a considerable economic slowdown. Now that we have settled that, we want […]
*Sorry for the delay in posting we were experiencing serious computer issues One of the questions on everybodys’ minds is how high would inflation need to go before the Fed would reconsider any further rate cuts. During the recent months’ we have seen increasing down side risks to the US growth forecast, while at the […]