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Employment Situation

Jobless Claims Hit a Roadblock

What had been an improving trend in initial jobless claims has hit a roadblock with claims rising this morning to by 22K to 496K .  Recent volatility can be attributed to everything from weather to a backlog of claims in California, but in the end still points to further deterioration for the monthly employment report.  […]

A Mixed Payroll Picture

January’s non-farm payrolls fell by -20K, compared to a Bloomberg consensus forecast of an increase of +15K. December’s release was revised down to -150K from -85K, while November’s number was revised up to +64K from its original release of +4K. January’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 9.7%, from 10.0%–driven by a shrinking workforce.  Keep in […]

Payrolls Fall Hard in December, But Revised to Positive in November

December non-farm payrolls fell 85k, compared to a consensus call of no change. November payrolls were revised to +4k from -11k this was the first increase in payrolls since December 2007.  December’s unemployment rate remained at 10.0%, in-line with consensus.  Hourly earnings in December rose +0.2%, in-line with consensus. Manufacturing  payrolls declined -27k, falling for […]

US Economics Week Ahead: 2010 Starts with a Bang

It is a good thing investors will have the entire weekend to recover from their New Year’s celebrations, because 2010 is starting with a bang, at least in terms of economic data.  Undoubtedly, the week’s most critical release will be Friday’s employment report, where excitement is building that payrolls could show their first monthly advance […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Jobs to the Rescue?

This week investors face a barrage of data in addition to Chairman Bernanke’s Senate confirmation hearing.  On the economic front, Friday’s employment report should steal the show followed closely Tuesday’s manufacturing ISM release. Both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM reports have indicated expansion over the past three months, and should again in November, albeit at […]

Job’s Report Comes in Below Expectations, Unemployment to 26 Year High

In September non-farm payrolls declined 263k, versus a consensus forecast of -175k, and a revised decline in August of -201K.  Payrolls have now declined for 21 consecutive months.  Over the last 21 months 7.2mn people have lost their jobs.  September’s unemployment rate rose to 9.8% from 9.7%, this was inline with expectations, but the highest […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Markets Try to Find Traction in an Array of Data

There’s no doubt this week’s most important release will be Friday’s employment report, which is expected to show a decline in payrolls of -170K with an unemployment rate of 9.8%.  This week could prove critical as markets try to regain some traction after several negative surprises last week, including lower than anticipated existing home sales […]

US Week Ahead: Jobs & Manufacturing

Following last week’s mixed data, the market will be searching for indications of the strength and timing of a US economic recovery — and there will be plenty of places to look.  In contrast to the relative quiet of the past several weeks, a slew of economic indicators pertaining to jobs and manufacturing should be […]

US Week Ahead: It’s all about the jobs!

Despite the shortened work week, we have a rather busy schedule of US economic data releases, climaxing with Thursday’s US employment data. Last month’s payroll data caught the market by surprise coming in well above expectations, demonstrating the lowest level of job losses since September 2008. But, the big question remains, was this start of […]