As tomorrow morning’s employment report approaches I wanted to take a quick look at the relationship between the four week moving average of initial jobless claims and the change in payrolls. As a general rule of thumb significant sustained job growth cannot occur until claims move below 400K. However, in March payrolls grew at 162K, […]
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Employment Report
Non-farm payrolls fell -36K, handily beating the latest consensus forecast of -68K. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.7%. The market can expect some volatility from government census worker hirings over the months ahead. The effect should be positive for the next couple months, but eventually turn negative as these workers are let go. One […]
The inevitable has occurred; October’s unemployment rate rose to 10.2%–a 26 year high–, while nonfarm payrolls declined by -190,000. The drop in payrolls was more or less in-line with my forecast of -185K, but much worse than the consensus forecast of -175K. It isn’t all bad though, during my first glance at the data I […]
This week brings the onset of a notoriously bad month for returns, and given the week’s vast array of critical data, the ball is sure to start rolling in one direction or another. First let me apologize if this week’s calendar seems somewhat abridged, as I am on vacation, and am writing it amid the […]