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consumer confidence

Consumer Confidence To Remain Range Bound, Despite Friday’s Marginal Improvement

Despite Friday’s better than anticipated confidence number it’s unlikely the index can show sustained gains until initial jobless claims move well below current levels.   As the attached chart highlights, in 2009, as claims began to fall, confidence began to rise off of crisis lows.  However, since the start of 2010 this trend came to an […]

Food Stamp Usage Explodes

Food stamp usage has climbed to new highs in the U.S. with over 40mn subscribers–roughly 15% of the total population–as of this morning’s release for March.  The rise in volumes coincided with an explosion in costs for the program to $5.4bn/month from $3.6bn/month at the start of 2009.  Surging food stamp use or what is referred […]

Lending Spikes in China, Confidence Falls, & Consumer Prices Remain Tame for Now…

According to the China Securities Journal, Chinese banks lent almost CNY1.4 trn in new loans during January–third-largest monthly total on record. This was less than the CNY1.6 trn some outlets has been speculating on, but far more than what I expect the government would have liked. But, considering that it was reported that CNY1.1 trn […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Nothing’s Certain

Over the past two weeks new uncertainties have begun pouring into the markets, like the deluge of rain currently striking the west coast—I spent part of last week in Los Angeles.  However, unlike what’s happening over the west coast, the storms investors faced were mostly avoidable.   It all began with legitimate concerns over tightening Chinese […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Quiet for the Holidays

The last week of 2009 bears some good news for investors, and that is there isn’t much of it.  The week ahead could very well be the quietest week of 2009.  However, not all is still, there are several quasi-important releases related to housing, consumer confidence, and manufacturing.  Data-centric investors will be analyzing the Dallas […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Is There Time for Turkey?

The market will be providing a cornucopia of data this week centered on Tuesday and Wednesday, which you can mull over as you begin brining your turkeys—as an aside here’s the recipe I will be following this year.  Also, I wrote an interesting column on Friday for Real Money titled ‘Talking Turkey on Agricultural Trends’ […]

Consumer Confidence Hits 4 Month Low…

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 47.7 in October from a revised figure of 53.4.  This was well below the consensus forecast of 53.1, and the lwoest reading in four months.  The October Present Situation index came in at 20.7 compared to 23.0 in September, while the October Expectations index finished at 65.7 […]

US Economics Week Ahead: The End is Near! (for the recession…)

This week’s most important economic data will likely come in the form of third quarter 2009’s advanced estimate of GDP, which should put an end to four consecutive quarters of declines.  The U.S. government’s ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program during the quarter should help to boost the personal consumption component of GDP, while inventories declining at […]

September’s Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Dips

September’s consumer confidence fell to 53.1, compared to a consensus forecast of 57.0, and a previous reading of 54.1.  According to the report “Consumer Confidence, which had improved in August, retreated slightly in September. The Present Situation Index decreased, as consumers viewed both current business conditions and the labor market less favorably than last month. […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Markets Try to Find Traction in an Array of Data

There’s no doubt this week’s most important release will be Friday’s employment report, which is expected to show a decline in payrolls of -170K with an unemployment rate of 9.8%.  This week could prove critical as markets try to regain some traction after several negative surprises last week, including lower than anticipated existing home sales […]