Fiat Economics

Archives

• ▼ 2010 (141)
  • ► August (1)
  • • Future Updates
  • ► July (9)
  • • A Rare Divergence for GDP Forecasts Highlights Uncertainties
    • An Old Radio Piece
    • More Seniors than Teens Now in the U.S. Labor Force
    • My Recent TV Hits
    • Car Sales in China a Victim of Tightening
    • The IMF's Delusions of Grandeur for China
    • Mortgage Delinquencies Point To Trouble Ahead
    • S&P Now vs. The Great Depression
    • Monthly Job Growth Almost Never Exceeds 400K
  • ► June (18)
  • • Unemployment Rate Unlikely to Budge until 3mn New Jobs Created
    • ECRI Weekly Leading Index Pointing Toward a Double-Dip
    • Consumer Confidence To Remain Range Bound, Despite Friday's Marginal Improvement
    • ‘What’flation, 2Y Treasuries Yielding 67bps
    • Why Homebuilder Stocks Haven't Plunged
    • China's Real Estate Free Fall May Not Bode Well For Commodities
    • Germany vs. France Not Just Being Played on the Pitch
    • Spain Begins to Echo Greece
    • The Decline in the BDI Doesn't Mean Much...
    • Risk Makes a Comeback
    • Building Material Sales Add Volatility to Retail Sales
    • France Shows Signs of Weakness...
    • Chinese Government Officials May Have Leaked Key Economic Data
    • This Week's Critical Government Bond Auctions, & Worries for Spain
    • Spreads in Europe on Track to Test Pre-Bailout Levels
    • 28% of all U.S. Income Comes From the Government
    • Food Stamp Usage Explodes
    • Money Supply Says No-Go to Inflation
  • ► May (30)
  • • NOAA's Hurricane Forecast More Often Wrong Than Right
    • A Great Video on the Problems in Europe...
    • Purchase Aps Hit 13Y Low as Tax Credit Expires
    • Fed Could Lower Spread for Currency Swaps to Increase European Liquidity
    • Risk Returns with a Vengeance
    • Euro Zone Countries Breached EU Fiscal Limits 57% of the Time (Bloomberg)
    • Near-term Inflation Expectations Fall to Zero
    • Risk Aversion the New Norm
    • Swiss National Bank Intervention in EURCHF
    • Political Risk Wearing on Investors
    • Traders Lack Conviction in the Market
    • Pricing Pressure Building within the Depths of the PPI
    • Why Central Bank Swaps Haven't Put a Stop to LIBOR's Climb
    • Credit Card Delinquencies Fall
    • US Equities Outperforming The World
    • Swiss Franc: A Managed Currency?
    • Short-Term Inflation Expectations Drop Like a Rock
    • Retail Sales Just Ain’t What They Used To Be:
    • Preparing for Retail
    • Stocks say Goodbye, & Euro says Hello (to the Crisis)
    • GDP Growth’s All a Bunch of Garbage…
    • Risk Aversion Not Just an Equities Story: Look for the Yen to Weaken
    • Housing Recovery: To Remain a no Show in 2010
    • Pressure for Chinese Tightening Continues to Build:
    • Rising TED Spread Says ‘Hold on There’ to EU Bailout
    • Europhoria Already Wanes...
    • A Crossroad for the Eurozone's Survival
    • TED Spread Begins to Spike: Counterparty Risk Rises
    • Initial Jobless Claim's 'New Equilibrium' Can Benefit Payrolls
    • PIIGS: Europe's 'Sub-Prime Borrowers'
  • ► April (4)
  • • Lost Wallet in NY (4/27)
    • Mortgage Rates Begin To Climb
    • Weekend Musings: High Tech Stein Keeps Beer 'Frosty' For Days
    • Payrolls Indicate to Markets; Strong Labor Recovery Not Just Yet
  • ► March (18)
  • • How Does Your States Crediting Rating & Tax Rates Compare
    • Boeing's 787 Faces Critical Wing Test Today
    • In The World of Rates, What Goes Down Must Come up; Expect Higher 10Y and Mortgage Rates
    • First Portugal, Then New Home Sales, Next...
    • Economists Warn Fed Could Hike Discount Rate Before Next Meeting
    • Could Higher Industrial Production Result in Less Hiring?
    • China's Tightening Tool Box...
    • One Month's Not a Trend, But January's Trade Data Could Point To A Slowdown in Global Trade
    • Where's the Unemployment Rate in Your State?
    • Chinese RMB Appreciation Always Seems Six Months Away (But It's Coming)...
    • Potentially Good News For Jobless Bankers & Lawyers
    • Morgan Stanley Expects Strong Tightening from Canada
    • 1981 Data Coming To a TV Near You (A Fun Retrospective)
    • Temp Employment Pointing Toward Robust Payrolls
    • Pending Home Sales Point Toward Continued Trouble for Housing
    • Weakness in the Pound Quickly & Simply Explained
    • Japan Still a Big Concern; More so Than Greece?
    • ISM Disappoints, While Market Maintains its Gains
  • ► February (25)
  • • Chilean Earthquake Map & Impact on Copper Production
    • Existing Home Sales Moving Back To Pre-Tax Credit Levels?
    • '23,000 now expected to lose jobs after shuttle retirement'
    • Bumpy Road Ahead For Housing
    • Jobless Claims Hit a Roadblock
    • A Bad Day for New Home Sales
    • Housing Market Faces Headwinds
    • What To Look For This Week
    • No Surprise, Fed Raises Discount Rate
    • Limited Updates This Week
    • China's Surprises on Timing, But Not Action
    • Lending Spikes in China, Confidence Falls, & Consumer Prices Remain Tame for Now...
    • Bernanke Comments
    • Market News International: Internal Report Says Germany's Govt Cannot Help Greece
    • Comments from Fitch and EU Commissioner on Greece & Credit Ratings
    • ECB President Trichet Leaves Sydney Early to Attend Emergency Meeting
    • Bullard Comments on Monetary Policy, Indicating a Fed Rate Hike Not Likely Over the Short-Run
    • Rate Hikes Likely On Hold in China, At Least for Now...
    • Kindling a Fire
    • Twitter
    • FT Highlights What I Believe is the Next Big Threat: A U.S. Downgrade
    • A Mixed Payroll Picture
    • Non-Manufacturing ISM Remains Subdued in January
    • Concerns in Chinese Real Estate Sector Grow as Transaction Volumes Plummet
    • Manufacturing Around the Worlds Grows Faster Than Expected
  • ► January (36)
  • • Hoenig Dissent Only Surprise in FOMC's Statement
    • Home Sales All Around Disappoint
    • An Ominous Sign From the Philly Fed
    • More on China
    • Uncertainty of Chinese Tightening Continues to Weigh on Asian Markets
    • Cantor Upgrades DryShips (DRYS) To 'Buy' From 'Hold'
    • China Begins to Rein in Speculative Real Estate Purchases
    • US Economics Week Ahead: Nothing's Certain
    • The Markets Facing a Barrage of Uncertainties
    • A Telling Sign from China's National Bureau of Statistics
    • Chinese Central Bank to Raise Rates on Friday?
    • Virgin America: Fast Reliable WiFi and CNN, All While 36K Feet Above Kansas
    • US Economics Week Ahead: Housing Side Story & A Special Election
    • A Possible Loophole for Dems if they Lose Tuesday's Special Election
    • IP, CPI, & the NY Fed Survey
    • More Evidence the Approaching IT Replacement Cycle will Exceed Analysts' Estimates
    • December Retail Sales Disappoint
    • More Signs Restrictions are Coming to a Chinese Property Market Near You
    • Site Issues
    • Tightening Seems More imminent in China
    • Big Boost in Chinese Exports Could Lead to More Rapid Tightening
    • China to Curb Real Estate Speculation; While Exports Grow 17.7% y/y
    • US Economics Week Ahead: Retail Sales & The Start of Earnings
    • Week End Update on my Global Macro Trading Strategies
    • Consumer Credit Takes A Nose Dive
    • Cantor Raises Price Target for DSX
    • Payrolls Fall Hard in December, But Revised to Positive in November
    • PC Sales Jump Since Windows 7 Release
    • Another Reason to be Bearish on the Yen
    • GM's New Battery Plant
    • This Morning's Tightening in China Does Not Bode Well for Chinese Equities in 2010
    • Non-Manufacturing ISM Goes Back Above 50, But Barely
    • ADP Report May Point to Improved Non-Farm Payrolls
    • HOGS Poised to Benefit from Rising Food Prices in China
    • ISM Could Bode Well For Payrolls
    • Chinese Snow to Cause More Than Just Delays
• ► 2009 (173)
  • ► December (12)
  • • US Economics Week Ahead: 2010 Starts with a Bang
    • Dell Set to Ride Approaching IT Replacement Cycle
    • Chicago PMI Moves Higher
    • US Economics Week Ahead: Quiet for the Holidays
    • A Review of my EQ Based Global Macro Trading Ideas
    • Existing Home Sales-- Surprise to the Upside
    • 3Q09 GDP Revised Down, But 4Q Still Looks Strong
    • US Economics Week Ahead: Retailers not Dreaming of a White Christmas
    • An Economic Wrestling Match For Our Future
    • US Economics Week Ahead: No Change by the Fed
    • US Economics Week Ahead: Black or Red Friday?
    • Apologies for this Week
  • ► November (20)
  • • US Economics Week Ahead: Jobs to the Rescue?
    • Dubai's Downfall
    • US Economics Week Ahead: Is There Time for Turkey?
    • Talking Turkey on Agriculture Trends
    • Claims Unchanged
    • Housing Pains & Inflation Creep
    • Industrial Production Shows Modest Gain due to Utility Output
    • October's Retail Sales: The Devil's in the Details
    • US Economics Week Ahead: Retail Sales will set the Pace
    • Coal in Your Stocking: Hypocrisy, Senility or Common Sense?
    • Wavering Sentiment Likely to Raise Fears Among Retailers
    • Trade Data: Good News for Recovery, But Wider Than Anticipated Deficit Likely Means Downward Revision to Q3 Growth
    • Be On The Lookout....
    • Mortgage Purchase Aps Realize a Precipitous Decline
    • Chinese Consumers May Have Only Begun to Teethe
    • US Economics Week Ahead: A Quiet Week; A Busy Friday
    • Unemployment Rate Tops 10%, But Temp Employment Shows Some Signs of Life
    • Non-Manufacturing ISM Takes a Modest Dip
    • ADP Was a Non-Event, But Keep Your Eyes on this Morning's Non-Manu ISM Employment Index
    • Morning Macro Recap: ISM & Pending Home Sales
  • ► October (22)
  • • US Economics Week Ahead: Jobs & the Fed
    • This Morning's Macro Recap: Income & Consumption, ECI, Chicago PMI, & Consumer Sentiment
    • Andy Xie: Central Banks, Arsonists and Playing with Fire
    • Intraday Major Yen Divergence; Parallel Derisking In Process (From ZeroHedge)
    • GDP Back to Positive
    • Positioning Yourself for Japan's Potential Demise...
    • New Homes Sales & Durable Goods
    • Sprott Asset Management Raises Concerns Over US Government's Financial Viability
    • Consumer Confidence Hits 4 Month Low...
    • US Economics Week Ahead: The End is Near! (for the recession...)
    • Housing Starts Disappoint & PPI Turns Negative
    • US Economics Week Ahead: Earnings Usurp Housing Data
    • Morning Recap--CPI Shows Modest Gains, Claims Down, & Empire State Manuf. Survey Reaches 5Y High
    • Retail Sales Data Indicates a Strengthening Consumer
    • A Brief Global Macro View on the World's Markets
    • US Economics Week Ahead: A Shortened Week with a Big Punch
    • Initial Claims Fall 33K, Reach Lowest Levels Since January
    • Non-Manufacturing ISM Breaks Above 50
    • US Economics Week Ahead: Is October the new September?
    • Job's Report Comes in Below Expectations, Unemployment to 26 Year High
    • Tide Moves Out on Cash for Clunker Benefits
    • Personal Income up 0.2%, Consumption Rises 1.3%
  • ► September (35)
  • • September Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Drops
    • Is the Yen Overvalued? (A Quick Look)
    • September's Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Dips
    • Case Shiller HPI an Improving Trend
    • US Economics Week Ahead: Markets Try to Find Traction in an Array of Data
    • Finding a Complement to the BDI May Lie in the Rails...
    • Existing Home Sales Show Unexpected Decline
    • FOMC Announces No Change... Fed's Purchase of Long-Term Treasuries Will End As Planned In Oct...
    • Potential Market Negatives Part 4: A Word From the Wise
    • US Economic Week Ahead: Big Ben & His Men (& Women)...
    • Is a Falling Greenback Leading to Smooth Sailing for Shippers?
    • Potentially Good News For Smaller Ships
    • Jobless Claims & Housing Starts Both Improve
    • Industrial Production Up +0.8%
    • CPI Up +0.4, Core-CPI Up +0.1%
    • Business Inventories Fall -1.0%
    • Retail Sales & NY Manf. Survey Better Than Expected; PPI Higher than Anticipated
    • Norton Rose Shipping Industry Survey Paints Bleak Picture
    • Lehman's Impact on the BDI & Shipping (Then & Now)
    • US Economics Week Ahead: A Deluge of Data
    • Potential Market Negatives Part 3: Insider Selling
    • September's Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Shows Gain
    • August Import Prices Up More Than Expected
    • Dahlman Rose & Co. Global Transportation Conference 2009 (Day 2: Trucking)
    • Dahlman Rose & Co. Global Transportation Conference 2009 (Day 1: Railroads)
    • Consumer Credit Outstanding Down US$21.55bn
    • BDI Shows Labor Day Gains, But Capesize Rates Still Falling
    • US Economics Week Ahead: The Calm Before The Storm
    • Payrolls Decline by -216K, Unemployment Rate Moves Up To 9.7
    • When Will the FOMC Turn From Dove to Hawk? Don't Hold Your Breath...
    • Non-Manufacturing ISM Rises to 48.4 from 46.4
    • Initial Claims Show Modest Decline
    • US Railroad Activity Not a Bright Spot for Shipping Rates
    • Productivity Up, Labor Costs Down, & ADP Might Not Be As Bad As It Seems
    • ISM Up, Construction Spending Neutral, & Pending Home Sales Rise
  • ► August (46)
  • • US Week Ahead: The Start of September...
    • Consumer Sentiment Down Modestly From July
    • Personal Income Flat, Consumer Expenditures Show Modest Gains
    • State Budget Turmoil Good News For Cons, Bad News For Everyone Else…
    • 2Q09 GDP Unchanged, Initial Jobless Claims Fall, & Corporate Profits Are Up
    • New Home Sales Up Big
    • Durable Goods Orders Rise Above Expectations
    • Consumer Confidence Rises Well Above Forecast, FHFA Down
    • Case-Shiller Home Price Index Shows Continued Improvement
    • Capesize Rates Could Face Additional Pressure This Week
    • US Week Ahead: To Buy Or Not To Buy
    • July's Existing Home Sales Continue to Improve, Coming in Well Above Forecast
    • Increase in Chinese Bank Capital Requirements Likely to Further Reduce New Lending
    • US Mortgage Deliquencies Rise in 2Q09
    • Leading Economic Indicators Show 4th Consecutive Monthly Increment, Philly Fed Survey Surprises to the Upside
    • Drop in Chinese Lending Leads to Declines In Both The Shanghai Composite & The BDI
    • Initial Jobless Claims Rise More Than Anticipated
    • Article on Chinese Market By Andy Xie
    • Inventory Restocking Could Help Support The BDI
    • Housing Starts Fall, While Producer Prices Decline
    • Potential Market Negatives Part 2: Shorts
    • Housing Market Index Improves
    • Potential Market Negatives Part 1: September
    • Fed Extends the TALF
    • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Moves Into Positive Territory
    • US Week Ahead: Where's the Upside?
    • Consumer Sentiment Shows Unexpected Drop
    • July Industrial Production Shows First Gain in 9 Months
    • Consumer Prices Rise less Than Anticipated
    • Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise, Retail Sales Decline, & Foreclosures Are Up...
    • Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged, But Begins to Scrap Treasury Purchase Program
    • Trade Balance Widens to -US$27.0bn
    • Interest in 'Cash for Clunkers' Starting to Wane?
    • Productivity Up, Unit Labor Costs Down
    • US Week Ahead: Steady As She Goes
    • June Consumer Credit Falls More Than Expected
    • Tsingtao's Profit up 68% During 1H09 on Higher Volumes
    • Payrolls Beat Forecast, Unemployment Falls
    • Jobless Claims Drop More Than Expected
    • July's Non-Manufacturing ISM comes in Below Expectations
    • ADP Report Improves, But Still Below Estimates
    • Pending Home Sales Surprises to the Upside
    • Personal Income Falls Slightly More Than Expected
    • Vast Potential in Chinese Beer Market Barely Tapped
    • ISM & US Construction Index come in Above Expectations
    • US Week Ahead: Jobs & Manufacturing
  • ► July (30)
  • • 2Q09 Advanced GDP Better Than Estimates on Government Expenditures
    • Claims Continue to Rise, Due to Erroneous Adjustment Factors
    • Oil Prices Likely to Recede by Year’s End
    • Durable Goods Fall 2.5% in June, But There's Better News in the Details
    • California Budget Furloughs Put Into Perspective
    • Consumer Confidence Comes in Below Expectations
    • Case Shiller Shows First M/M Gain Since 2006
    • Unusual Rally in DryShips (DRYS)
    • New Home Sales Rise 11%, Crushing Market Expectations
    • Economics Week Ahead: GDP & Earnings Steal the Show
    • Consumer Sentiment Falls on Jobs Weakness
    • Existing Home Sales Beat Estimates, Rise 3.6%
    • Initial Claims Climb 30K to 554K
    • Leading Indicators Up: A Good Sign for the Economy
    • US Economic Week Ahead: Cue Earnings
    • June Housing Starts Show Big Gains
    • Philly Manufacturing Index Declines More Than Expected
    • Jobless Claims Drop, But Reading is too Optimistic
    • Empire Survey and Industrial Production Surprise to the Upside
    • Retail Sales Jump, but the Story is in the Details...
    • US Week Ahead: A Hectic Week on Data & Earnings
    • China's June Exports Fall 21.4%y/y in June
    • Initial Claims Come in Better than Expected
    • Alcoa's Earnings Come in Above Consensus Estimates
    • MBA Purchase Applications Composite Index Up 10.9%
    • ICSC-Goldman Store Sales-- Shows Growth, But Redbook Says Otherwise
    • Non-Manufacturing ISM 47.0 vs Consensus Forecast of 46.7
    • US Economic Week Ahead: The Calm after the Storm
    • June ADP, Comes in Below Expectations
    • Chinese Manufacturing Shows Marginal Gains
  • ► June (5)
  • • Consumer Confidence Disappoints, Shipping Stocks Suffer
    • US Week Ahead: It's all about the jobs!
    • FFA Market Rises
    • Brazilian Iron Ore Exports Drop in May
    • Swine Flu
  • ► May (2)
  • • BDI to face downward pressure
    • TheStreet.com
  • ► January (1)
  • • The Anatomy of a Global Financial Crisis
• ► 2008 (45)
  • ► November (2)
  • • The Baltic Dry Index Revisited
    • A Graphical Look at October's Senior Loan Officer Survey:
  • ► October (1)
  • • The Age of Despondency…
  • ► September (3)
  • • A Blast From the Past... How the Housing Crisis Will End (Revisited)
    • My Thoughts on the Next 24 Hours...
    • A Quick Look at Global Sub-indices (& An Aside on China)
  • ► August (6)
  • • A Look at China’s P/E Ratios:
    • Mengniu, A Look at A Chinese Dairy Company
    • An Overview of the Chinese Dairy Market
    • Chinese Healthcare Sector ADRs
    • Chinese Financial Sector ADRs
    • Chinese Government policies on real estate sector (Supplement)
  • ► July (6)
  • • Chinese Energy Sector ADRs
    • A Look at Chinese and Hong Kong ADR’s
    • Impending Chinese Financial Crisis…
    • A Quick Look at the Asian CDS Market
    • S&P500 Short Interest Ratio
    • Global Battery Index
  • ► June (1)
  • • Gold a Bet Against the Fed
  • ► April (1)
  • • The Week Ahead: Earnings Take Center Stage
  • ► March (16)
  • • U.S. Week Ahead: ISM and Employment Steal the Show
    • Short Interest Ratio NYSE Top 100
    • A simple quick explanation as to why US gasoline prices will continue rising rapidly
    • Week Ahead: The Potential to be a Downer
    • Opposition Party Wins Taiwanese Presidential Election
    • Taiwanese Presidential Elections Being Held Today
    • Chinese Monetary Policy vs. Inflation FIGHT!
    • Fed Cuts 75bp
    • The Week Ahead: Fed Cuts and Bank Failures
    • Food or Fuel for Thought?
    • Chinese Inflation: A Mounting Problem (Update)
    • Inflation, Inflation, Inflation
    • Now What? The Week Ahead
    • How will it end?
    • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI): Can it tell us anything?
    • A Potential for Blood-letting: The Week Ahead
  • ► February (2)
  • • Chinese Inflation: A Mounting Problem
    • Fed Cuts & Inflation
  • ► January (7)
  • • Fed likely to go 50 (Another look at China, India, Las Vegas Sands, and an introduction to Taiwan)
    • Looking for Alpha through Beta
    • A strong move by the Fed
    • Has the market overpriced the probability of a US recession?
    • Does the Federal Reserve Board's Senior Loan Officer Survey imply anything for growth?
    • Topics I am currently looking into:
    • The Blog