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July 2010

A Rare Divergence for GDP Forecasts Highlights Uncertainties

Taking a random sampling of 2Q GDP forecasts for Bloomberg we can see the uncertainty facing the release schedule for 7/30.  Weaker than expected trade and and inventory data are the primary culprits behind the uncertainty, and I imagine more banks will revise down their forecasts as we move closer to the release.  Presently, I believe […]

An Old Radio Piece

An older piece I did on Bloomberg radio discussing the correlation between garbage and GDP.  I am more putting it up here, so I don’t lose track of the file… Bloomberg radio 6-11-10

More Seniors than Teens Now in the U.S. Labor Force

**Story by Bloomberg’s Interactive Insight Desk… U.S. employees old enough to retire are outnumbering their teenage counterparts for the first time since at least 1948 when Harry Truman was president, a sign of how generations are now having to compete for jobs. Rest of the story and interactive graphics: http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/teens.html

Car Sales in China a Victim of Tightening

In a sign of China’s slowing economy passenger car sales in the country grew at the slowest pace in 15 months, moving off historic highs stoked by the country’s unprecedented fiscal stimulus. As the attached chart highlights, the spike in car sales was highly correlated to strong consumer lending growth catalyzed by the government’s stimulus […]

The IMF’s Delusions of Grandeur for China

As everyone is aware—excluding possibly the IMF— the Chinese government has begun tapping the brakes on the country’s economic engine to prevent overheating and curtail inflationary fears.  With this in mind, the IMF surprised quite a few people yesterday increasing their 2010 growth forecast for China to 10.5% y/y from 10.0% in April; well above […]

Mortgage Delinquencies Point To Trouble Ahead

Many investors hoped a modest decline and a leveling off in mortgage delinquencies the end of last year signaled a top for the index, but those hopes were dashed when delinquencies for all types of mortgage hit a new high during the first quarter.   Fears were further exacerbated yesterday when Lender Processing Services released their […]

S&P Now vs. The Great Depression

Recently I’ve come across several headlines comparing recent activity in the stock market to what occurred during the Great Depression, so I ran the numbers.  The attached chart tracks the S&P 500 20 months prior (t-20) to its respective high prior to the Great Depression and the recent recession; ‘t’ indicates the actual high.  You […]

Monthly Job Growth Almost Never Exceeds 400K

Historically, payroll growth rarely exceeds 400K in any given month, even in the best of times, not good news considering the US has lost 8mn jobs since the start of the recession. Some analysts have discussed a best case scenario where payrolls rise by 1mn a month, bringing us back to the pre-recession peak within […]