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November 2009

US Economics Week Ahead: Jobs to the Rescue?

This week investors face a barrage of data in addition to Chairman Bernanke’s Senate confirmation hearing.  On the economic front, Friday’s employment report should steal the show followed closely Tuesday’s manufacturing ISM release. Both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM reports have indicated expansion over the past three months, and should again in November, albeit at […]

Dubai’s Downfall

Here is an excerpt from my Real Money column being published this morning: In 1909 the completion of the Metropolitan Life Building—the world’s tallest building—coincided with the beginning of a two year recession in the US.  Between 1929 and 1931 40 Wall Street, the Empire State Building, and the Chrysler Building were all erected in […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Is There Time for Turkey?

The market will be providing a cornucopia of data this week centered on Tuesday and Wednesday, which you can mull over as you begin brining your turkeys—as an aside here’s the recipe I will be following this year.  Also, I wrote an interesting column on Friday for Real Money titled ‘Talking Turkey on Agricultural Trends’ […]

Talking Turkey on Agriculture Trends

An excerpt from today’s column on RealMoney… “In tune with the Thanksgiving spirit–eating–I want to discuss a budding topic that’s garnering more attention lately from a growing number of my clients: food, or more specifically, agriculture. There are many ways to tackle this topic, but what I wanted to highlight today is the growing caloric […]

Claims Unchanged

Initial jobless claims came in unchanged this morning at -505K, while its overall downward trend continues to indicate that fewer people are losing their jobs.  This should help decelerate the climb in the unemployment rate and decline in payrolls, until they eventually peak some time during the first half of 2010.  It is very likely […]

Housing Pains & Inflation Creep

October’s Housing Starts disappointed the market finishing at an annual rate of 529,000 (-10.6%), while September’s release was revised up to 592K from 590K. Permit’s in October declined -4.0%, to 552K. Single-family starts fell -6.8%, while multi-family homes plummeted by -34.6%. The Bloomberg consensus forecast was for starts at 600K, with forecasts ranging from 570K […]

Industrial Production Shows Modest Gain due to Utility Output

Industrial Production rose +0.1% in October, versus a Bloomberg consensus forecast of +0.4%.At the same time September’s reading was revised up from +0.6% to +0.7%.  As I warned in my US Economics Week Ahead, manufacturing production lost -0.1% during the month while utility output more than offset this decline by climbing 1.6%, on what was […]

October’s Retail Sales: The Devil’s in the Details

As I mentioned in my week ahead, retail sales would likely set the pace for the week, and we received the data this morning. Retail sales rose +1.4% in October, compared to a revised -2.3% change in September (originally -1.5%). This was well above the latest Bloomberg consensus forecast of +0.9%,however, this good news was […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Retail Sales will set the Pace

The last full week in November brings with it its fair share of economic data, Fed talk, and a few important earnings stragglers.  The general themes of the week will be housing, manufacturing, inflation, and the consumer.  On the economic front, October’s retail sales—released on Monday—should steal the show, followed up by October’s industrial production […]

Coal in Your Stocking: Hypocrisy, Senility or Common Sense?

An excerpt from “Coal in Your Stocking: Hypocrisy, Senility or Common Sense?” At lunch last week with former colleague and Wall Street writer/editor Bill Johnsen, the topic du jour was Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI). Bill wanted to know if I thought the acquisition was an act of […]