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October 2009

US Economics Week Ahead: Jobs & the Fed

With the first week of November comes a wave of important economic data—plus a few key earnings announcements—important macro releases include October’s employment report, an FOMC announcement, and several other indicators that will help gauge the health of the consumer and overall economy.  Also important to note is that the ECB, Bank of England, and […]

This Morning’s Macro Recap: Income & Consumption, ECI, Chicago PMI, & Consumer Sentiment

Personal Income showed no change for September after a revised increment +0.1% in August, this was inline with the consensus forecast.  Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) declined -0.5% in September, versus a revised increment of +1.4% in August.  The decline in consumption is the continued aftereffects caused by the expiration of the US government’s ‘Cash for […]

Andy Xie: Central Banks, Arsonists and Playing with Fire

Here is another article by Andy Xie–always an interesting read–former Morgan Stanley economist, who predicted the credit crisis well before it came to fruition.  In this article Andy highlights how money supply growth is supporting a boom in asset prices, which in turn is bolstering the economy.  He goes on to compare central banks supplying […]

GDP Back to Positive

The BEA’s advance estimate of 3Q GDP indicates that the economy grew at an for the first time since 2Q08 at annualized 3.5% pace.  The most surprising data from the report was a relatively robust increase in personal consumption which grew at 3.4% during the quarter–contributing 2.4% to the quarters 3.5% growth.  The primary driven […]

Positioning Yourself for Japan’s Potential Demise…

-Strong domestic demand for Japanese government bonds has permitted Japan to keep interest rates at or near 0 despite significant increases to the government’s debt burden, with no significant currency depreciation, and almost no economic growth. But, this model may be coming to an end -An aging Japanese population will have several negative effects on […]

New Homes Sales & Durable Goods

September’s new home sales came in at a disappointing seasonally adjusted annual rate of 402K units, compared to a revised pace of 417K a month prior.  In September the supply of new homes remained stable at 7.5 months. The median new home price increased by 2.5% to $204,800.  The reason for the decline can likely […]

Sprott Asset Management Raises Concerns Over US Government’s Financial Viability

In a monthly investment strategy letter written by Eric Sprott and David Franklin of Sprott Asset Management titled ‘Surreality Check… Dead Government Walking’ they convey their concerns over the US government’s ability to finance its growing burden.  In the letter they clearly state: The United States Government is on a trajectory to default on their […]

Consumer Confidence Hits 4 Month Low…

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 47.7 in October from a revised figure of 53.4.  This was well below the consensus forecast of 53.1, and the lwoest reading in four months.  The October Present Situation index came in at 20.7 compared to 23.0 in September, while the October Expectations index finished at 65.7 […]

US Economics Week Ahead: The End is Near! (for the recession…)

This week’s most important economic data will likely come in the form of third quarter 2009’s advanced estimate of GDP, which should put an end to four consecutive quarters of declines.  The U.S. government’s ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program during the quarter should help to boost the personal consumption component of GDP, while inventories declining at […]