Skip to content

Archive:

September 2009

September Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Drops

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index unexpectedly fell back below 50 to 46.1 in September.  This was well below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 52.0, and August’s reading of 50.0.  I warned in my US week ahead that this indicator had the potential of surprising to the downside due to seasonal effects, but a drop of […]

Is the Yen Overvalued? (A Quick Look)

The Japanese Yen reached an eight month high yesterday against the USD (see chart), which led Japan’s finance minister, Hirohisa Fujii, to deny to Bloomberg that he is supporting a stronger Yen.  Nevertheless, it is my belief that the Yen may be overvalued and could experience a correction over the near-term.  Supporting this view is […]

September’s Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Dips

September’s consumer confidence fell to 53.1, compared to a consensus forecast of 57.0, and a previous reading of 54.1.  According to the report “Consumer Confidence, which had improved in August, retreated slightly in September. The Present Situation Index decreased, as consumers viewed both current business conditions and the labor market less favorably than last month. […]

Case Shiller HPI an Improving Trend

On a monthly basis both the 10 and 20 city Case Shiller HPI came in higher in July at +1.65% and 1.60%, respectively.  However, on a yearly basis the 10 city index is still down 12.8%, while the 20 city index is down 13.30%. On a monthly basis only three cities experienced declines (Detroit, Las […]

US Economics Week Ahead: Markets Try to Find Traction in an Array of Data

There’s no doubt this week’s most important release will be Friday’s employment report, which is expected to show a decline in payrolls of -170K with an unemployment rate of 9.8%.  This week could prove critical as markets try to regain some traction after several negative surprises last week, including lower than anticipated existing home sales […]

Finding a Complement to the BDI May Lie in the Rails…

Carrying over from a theme I mentioned earlier this week in my column on thestreet.com, I began contemplating what frequent transportation index, if any,  would be a good complement the BDI as a forward looking indicator toward the global economy. My goal was to find something that could perhaps help factor out the impact of […]

Existing Home Sales Show Unexpected Decline

Existing home sales for August fell by 2.7% to a 5.10mn annualized selling rate, compared to a Bloomberg consensus forecast of 5.35mn and a rate of 5.24mn in July.This is the first time in four months the index has experienced a decline. Single-family sales declined 2.8% in August to a rate of 4.48mn versus 4.61 […]

Potential Market Negatives Part 4: A Word From the Wise

The FT’s Alphaville published an interesting article today highlighting a piece by Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist and strategist David Rosenberg that set out to answer the question; who is buying into the current rally?  I think the piece is both timely and informative, and I recommend you give it a read:  Just who is buying […]

US Economic Week Ahead: Big Ben & His Men (& Women)…

Undoubtedly the most important item on this week’s calendar will be Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, which is highly unlikely to show any changes to the current policy stance.  But, as always, the market will be paying close attention the wording of the FOMC’s statement, which turned slightly more constructive last month indicating that financial markets have […]