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Archive:

January 2008

Looking for Alpha through Beta

We still believe there are a lot of good values out there on the Global EQ markets. We are anticipating that China will continue to outperform the US, and India may even outperform China. Looking to take advantage of these markets we found the following two ETFs IFN & FXI, for India and China, respectively. […]

A strong move by the Fed

As we mentioned in last night’s posting, we thought it would be possible to hear from the Fed before the next FOMC meeting if the US EQ markets looked to be down significantly, and they did… The Fed’s latest move should help reduce the risk of recession, stabilize the market, and prove the 2008 Fed […]

Has the market overpriced the probability of a US recession?

Global equity markets have clearly priced in a US recession. We expect, & the futures market is currently indicating, that the US markets will open tomorrow down around 4%, after the MLK holiday… Has the market overpriced the probability of a US recession? We believe so. Looking back at the last recession in 2001 we […]

Does the Federal Reserve Board’s Senior Loan Officer Survey imply anything for growth?

*I believe so and this is why… (A quick synopsis)http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/snloansurvey/ Looking at the trend from the past several Senior Loan Officer Surveys, we have seen lending standards for banks and consumers tighten, while demand has receded and spreads of loan rates verse the banks’ cost of funds are rising. We expect when the next wave […]

Topics I am currently looking into:

1. What effects has globalization had on reducing inflation, and are we finished reaping its benefits? 2. How linked is the US consumer to the consumers of the world. Will a slow down in US consumption mean a global slow-down? 3. Will (or has) inflation begun to trend up to more historic levels and why? […]

The Blog

The purpose of this blog, the way I see it, is to provide the reader with my opinion on current economic trends and conditions. I think the Blog’s name speaks pretty much for itself. Fiat Economics is backed only by the good faith and credibility of its writer, in this case me… I will try […]