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Archive:

2008

The Baltic Dry Index Revisited

I have been receiving a significant amount of email regarding an old entry I wrote back in March 2008 regarding the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Back in March the BDI was recovering for an interim low it experienced in January on fears of a global economic slowdown, however, since then the situation has become far […]

A Graphical Look at October’s Senior Loan Officer Survey:

Back in January I did a piece discussing the predictive power of the Senior Loan Officer Survey, and found that there was some significance to the data. For the survey banks’ senior loan officers are asked to answer multiple questions based on their lending standards and demand for commercial/residential loans as well as consumer loans. […]

The Age of Despondency…

One could argue we have moved from an age of exuberance to an age of despondency. Not long ago our major concern was sky rocketing commodity prices, and its effect on global inflation; enter the credit crisis. We are currently witnessing an unprecedented global sell-off with no regards to asset classes or quality, or as […]

A Blast From the Past… How the Housing Crisis Will End (Revisited)

This piece is simply an updated version to a piece I published back on March 5th 2008 titled ‘How will it end’. Despite the fact we are much deeper into this financial crisis; the root of the problem has not changed, and that is the US housing market. As an interesting exercise consider that in […]

My Thoughts on the Next 24 Hours…

These are very interesting times… At this point in time, after passing up some deals which could have saved AIG, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw at least part if not all of AIG being bought at bargain basement prices by one of its major competitors. I think it will be tough for them […]

A Quick Look at Global Sub-indices (& An Aside on China)

A while back I created an excel file that tracks the conditions of global sub-indices. Essentially, I took over 600 sub-indices from around the world and I broke them out by best and worst performing over the past 6 months, P/E and P/B ratios, and dividend yield. I extracted the 15 best and worst performing […]

A Look at China’s P/E Ratios:

Quite a few readers have been wondering whether the relatively high P/E valuations of China’s equity markets were justified. This is my response: I would say that type of PE valuation is reasonable for most of the Chinese companies. As everyone knows, growth in China has been very robust over the past several years, and […]

Mengniu, A Look at A Chinese Dairy Company

Overview: Chinese Mengniu Dairy: China’s Mengniu dairy was founded in 1999 by a group of seasoned dairy market professionals previously employed by the state-owned Yili Dairy. Mengniu began trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in June 2004. Our DCF based price target is currently HKD26.16: Given Mengniu’s historically strong growth, its ability to generate […]

An Overview of the Chinese Dairy Market

China’s robust economic growth has led to significant increases in wealth, which has ultimately led to a shift in consumer preferences. This shift has been especially realized in the food and beverage industry. Chinese caloric intake has increased substantially over the past decade, and will continue to climb likely doubling over the next decade. The […]

Chinese Healthcare Sector ADRs

As an additional follow-up to my ADR series, I am going to take a look at the Chinese and Hong Kong healthcare sector. There are 6 key Chinese and Hong Kong ADRs within the GICS healthcare sector: Mindray Medical International (MR), Chine Medical Technologies (CMED), Wuxi PharmaTech (WX), Simcere Pharmaceutical (SCR), 3SBio (SSRX), and Tongjitang […]