Archive

Archive for the ‘Economics Week Ahead’ Category

US Economics Week Ahead: Nothing’s Certain

January 23rd, 2010 Michael McDonough Comments off

Over the past two weeks new uncertainties have begun pouring into the markets, like the deluge of rain currently striking the west coast—I spent part of last week in Los Angeles.  However, unlike what’s happening over the west coast, the storms investors faced were mostly avoidable.   It all began with legitimate concerns over tightening Chinese monetary policy, but quickly moved to the avoidable with doubts over the reconfirmation of Chairman Bernanke, and the potential impact of President Obama’s imprudent policy agenda toward the financial sector.  Barring these uncertainties, this week’s full calendar of economic and earnings data should help shed some light on the health of the U.S. economy and the sustainability of the current recovery.

On the economic side, this week’s main event should be Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, where the fed should continue making incremental changes to the statement bringing us closer to tightening—which I still believe is a ways off.  However, the meeting may be trumped by news of Chairman Bernanke’s reconfirmation, which could take place as early as this week.  Despite what is turning into a bit of a political circus I do expect Mr. Bernanke will be reconfirmed.

Moving away from the Fed the market will be focusing on the first estimate of fourth quarter GDP on Friday, and critical housing data being released throughout the week.  GDP growth should exceed 4%, but many will argue over the sustainability of this growth, which is being heavily supported by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies.  Housing data will likely be mixed with December’s existing home sales coming under some pressure after the would-be expiration of the first time home buyer tax credit.

On the earnings front we should be hearing from almost a quarter of the S&P 500 with some big names including Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Chevron (CVX), and Raytheon (RTN), Research In Motion (RIMM),Verizon (VZ), Yahoo (YHOO).  Other items that will likely drive headlines this week include President Obama’s State of The Union Address, the World Economic Forum in Davos, and an Apple product release (a tablet computer?).  Finally, the central banks of Japan (Monday & Tuesday) and New Zealand (Thursday) are schedule to meet next week, and could drive some headlines

Here is the rest of this week’s US calendar:

Monday, Jan. 25

10:00 a.m. EST: December’s Existing Home Sales (Risk: Negative, Market Reaction: Significant): What would have been the expiration of the first time home buyer tax credit in November could place some downward pressure on December’s existing home sales.  The original rush of home buyers, looking to take advantage of what was an expiring program, have already finished their purchases.  The extension/expiration of the program should eventually help stoke sales, but there will likely be a delay before a new group of home buyers enters the market.  I should also note that increased foreclosure activity during the month, combined with what I anticipate will be weak sales, could increase the inventory of homes for sales.  I expect we could also see some weakness in existing home values.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for existing home sales to decline to 6.1 million in December from 6.5 million a month prior.  Recently, home buyers have been more enticed to purchase existing homes over new homes as they tend to be generally cheaper.  I should also note that the index of pending home sales plunged -16.0% in November, which is an ominous sign.

10:30 a.m. EST: January’s Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This index is not highly publicized, but tracks manufacturing activity within the Dallas Feds jurisdiction.  Last month’s survey suggested, “Texas factory activity was flat in December…. The production index, a key indicator of state manufacturing conditions, came in close to zero in December, suggesting output held steady after growing in November for the first time since July 2008.  All indexes for future activity strengthened substantially in December, suggesting a more upbeat six-month outlook. The majority of respondents expect increases in production, new orders and shipments in the next six months. The future business activity index climbed to its highest level in nearly three years, and 41%”

Tuesday, Jan. 26

FOMC Meeting Begins

7:45 a.m. EST: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This weekly index tracks aggregate store sales across major US retailers, accounting for roughly 10% of total retail sales.  Last week’s number rose 2.0% compared to a drop of -3.0% a week prior.

8:55 a.m. EST: Redbook (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The Redbook is a weekly measurement of chain stores, discounters, and department store sales.  This indicator tends to be less significant than the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales in forecasting retail sales.  According to the Redbook store sales rose 0.9% last week on a yearly basis.

9:00 a.m. EST: November’s S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): It will be interesting to see what impact the would-be expiration of the first time home buyer tax credit will have on November’s housing prices.  Will sellers looking to sell their homes prior to the expiration have lowered prices or would a surge of buyers on the market help buoy home prices?  In October the Case Shiller Home Price Index ended five consecutive months of gains, lending some credence to the argument home sellers be lowering prices to liquidate their homes.

10:00 a.m. EST: January’s Consumer Confidence (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): Consumers continue to face a barrage of headwinds and tailwinds, which makes forecasting a rather volatile consumer confidence index a tough task.  Nevertheless, I anticipate that tailwinds will have a slight edge this month marginally pushing up the index.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a reading of 53.5, versus 52.9 in December.  Most of this index’s strength has been coming from its expectations component, while the present conditions index has moved back near interim lows.  This index tends to be closely correlated with ABC News comfort index and the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

10:00 a.m. EST: November’s FHFA House Price Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Unlike the Case Shiller Index the FHFA House Price Index rose by 0.6% on a monthly basis in November.  However, like the Case Shiller Index, it will be interesting to monitor what impact the would-be expiration of the first time home buyer tax credit will have on November’s housing prices.

10:00 a.m. EST: January’s State Street Investor Confidence Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The State Street Investor’s Confidence Index measures investors’ tolerance to risk. According to the State Street report in December, “This month’s up-tick in global investor confidence stemmed largely from an improvement in the mood in Asia, where risk appetite rose to an eight-month high,” commented Froot. “Elsewhere portfolio reallocations were modest. With three of the four indices over the neutral level of 100, institutions are continuing to add to their risky asset positions, but at a slower pace than was evident earlier in the year. Investors will be watching for signs of renewed economic growth, and well-designed exit strategies from policy makers, before making more significant reallocations towards risk in 2010.”

10:00 a.m. EST: January’s Richmond Fed’s Survey of Manufacturing (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The survey hit a soft patch last month after seven months of expansion.  According to the report, “Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region pulled back in December from positive territory after expanding during the previous seven months, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. All broad indicators of activity — shipments, new orders and employment — landed in negative territory. Most other indicators also suggested additional softness. Capacity utilization turned negative following seven months of improvement, while backlogs held steady. Vendor delivery times were virtually unchanged, while manufacturers reported slightly quicker growth in inventories.”

Wednesday, Jan. 27

7:00 a.m. EST: MBA Mortgage Applications (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This index, which tracks new mortgage applications tend to be a reasonable forward looking indicator for home sales, but issues including customers filling out numerous applications could skew the index.  Applications rose 9.1% last week after rising 14.3% a week prior.  Refinance applications jumped 10.7%, while purchase applications rose 4.4%.  A wave of buyers, filling out multiple mortgage applications, that were looking to take advantage of the first time home buyer tax credit–originally set to expire on Nov. 30th–have already completed their transactions, and have recently reduced the demand for mortgages.    However, the recent extension of the first time home buyer tax credit should eventually bring a new set of buyers into the market, which could help support the purchase index over the coming months.   The 4wk moving average of all mortgages was down 1% through the week of January 15th.

10:00 a.m. EST: December’s New Home Sales (Risk: Negative, Market Reaction: Significant): Unlike, existing home sales, new home sales could experience a bit of a bounce in December after several months of relatively low readings.  However, the sharp drop-off in pending home sales(-16% in November) combined with what would have been the expiration of the first time home buyer tax credit could place some pressure on the index, despite a rather optimistic consensus forecast.  It is true that the tax credit had a larger impacted on existing, but I anticipate there should be at least a marginal impact.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast for new home sales is 372K in December, versus 355K in November.

10:00 a.m. EST: December’s Mass Layoff Activity (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This data from the BLS will likely continue to show that mass layoff activity is subsiding.

10:00 a.m. EST: Timothy Geithner, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, testifies before House Oversignt Committee on AIG

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Petroleum Status Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report measures US domestic petroleum inventories.  Large unanticipated swings in this index could have a significant impact on energy prices.  Last week’s report showed a decline of -0.4 million barrels versus a rise of 3.7 million barrels a week prior.

2:15 p.m. EST: FOMC Announcement (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): It is hard to say whether the outcome of this meeting or the situation around Mr. Bernanke’s reconfirmation will garner more headlines in the press.  With that said I expect no change in policy, and nothing more than incremental changes to the FOMC’s statement (i.e. acknowledging recent improvements and highlighting risks).  I should also note that given this is the first meeting of 2010 the Fed will have a new voting rotation.  For those interested the new voters will be Boston’s Eric Rosengren, Cleveland’s Sandra Pianalto, St. Louis’ James Bullard, and Kansas City’s Thomas Hoenig.  As a side note, if Chairman Bernanke was not to be reconfirmed and Vice-Chairman Donald Kohn was to take his place, Kohn’s term is set for renewal by President Obama in June, which in theory could create another circus.  I personally expect Mr. Bernanke will be reconfirmed, but sadly I don’t have a vote.

9:00 p.m. EST: President Obama delivers his State of the Union Address to Congress

Thursday, Jan. 28

8:30 a.m. EST: December’s Durable Goods Orders (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): Stronger aircraft orders during the month should help bolster the index after rising 0.2% in November.  The current Bloomberg consensus is for an increase in December’s durable goods orders of 2.0%—I believe this may be slightly optimistic.

8:30 a.m. EST: December’s Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The CFNAI is an index consisting of 85 separate data sets designed to encompass national economic activity and inflationary pressure. A reading of 0 indicates the economy is growing at the historical trend while a negative or positive result indicates the economy is growing below or above its historical average, respectively. Given the volatile nature of this index, the three-month moving average is typically quoted. This index remains somewhat obscure in the mainstream media and is likely to have a minimal impact on trading. This index has been generally trending up over the preceding ten months, and could show a marginal improvement in December from its reading of -0.32 in November.

8:30 a.m. EST: Jobless Claims (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Initial claims rose an unexpected 36K last week to 482K, after rising 11K a week prior.  The four week moving average rose to 448,250 from 440,750.  An improving trend in initial jobless claims are indicative of fewer job losses in the BLS’s monthly employment report; however, given the still elevated number of claims the job situation will get worse before it gets better.  The current Bloomberg consensus is for an initial jobless claims reading of 440K on Thursday.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Natural Gas Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report highlights domestic natural gas inventories, which could have a significant impact on the energy sector.

11:00 a.m. EST: Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Survey (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Manufacturing growth remained positive, but moderate somewhat in the region in December.  According to the survey, “Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity moderated somewhat in December, and producers were slightly less optimistic about the months ahead, with few planning major capital expenditures. Price indexes remained mostly stable.”

4:30 p.m. EST: Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Since the Fed’s shift to quantitative easing, the balance sheet has become one method to measure to the Fed’s effectiveness.  The market will pay close attention to the reserve bank credit component, which measures factors supplying   providing reserves into the banking system.  The Fed’s balance sheet fell from a record $2.274 trillion to $2.233 trillion last week.  The fed’s balance sheet has slowly been shifting away from emergency lending facilities to Treasuries, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities to help moderate long-term interest rates.

Friday, Jan. 29

8:30 a.m. EST: First Estimate 4Q09 GDP (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): The current Bloomberg Consensus forecast is for fourth quarter GDP growth to come in at 4.5%, versus 2.2% a quarter prior.  Personally, I believe this forecast may be slightly too optimistic, and expect the number to be closer to 4%.  Slower inventory liquidations combined with a jump in consumption should prove to be the quarter’s biggest growth engines.   While on the surface the number will look positive, questions will be asked about the sustainability of this growth.  A portion of this growth is still being supported through accommodative fiscal and monetary stimulus, which will eventually begin to wane.  For more on this please see my piece ‘Looking at 2010’s Outlook and Risks’.  I expect GDP growth to peak in either 4Q09 or 1Q10 then gradually diminish throughout the remainder of the year, albeit remaining positive.  In terms of the Fed, relatively tepid growth in a post recession period combined with ultra-high unemployment and subdued inflation should convince the fed to remain on hold through most of 2010.  After the release, don’t be surprised to see a barrage of experts analyzing the details for clues over the sustainability of this growth—you know where I stand.

8:30 a.m. EST: 4Q09 Employment Cost Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Mostly stagnant salaries and wages, offset by some potential increases in benefit payments, should lead to only a modest increment in fourth quarter employment costs.  In the third quarter the index rose 0.4% indicating that wage pressure remains relatively benign.

*9:45 a.m. EST: Chicago PMI (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): The Chicago PMI measures business activity in the mid-West, and is released one business day prior to the ISM. *I should note that the Chicago PMI is released several minutes early to subscribers, so the market could begin reacting to the data as early as 9:42 a.m.  The Chicago PMI is considered a forward looking indicator to the national ISM, so any large unexpected shifts in the Chicago PMI could impact trading.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a reading of 57.0, versus to 60.0 in December.  The PMI covers both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

9:55 a.m. EST: January’s Final Consumer Sentiment (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): January’s final consumer sentiment release will likely be mostly unchanged from the preliminary reading of 72.8.  The index has been trending up, but concerns over the job market and other adverse factors are limiting the upside.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a final reading of 73.0.

3:00 p.m. EST: January’s Farm Prices (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Given the relationship between farms prices and food prices, this index could have significant implications on future headline CPI.

Enjoy the weekend!

Retweet

US Economics Week Ahead: Housing Side Story & A Special Election

January 15th, 2010 Michael McDonough Comments off

This week will primarily focus on earnings, with housing data acting as an intriguing side story. Companies expected to report earnings this week include: AMR Inc. (AMR), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), CSX (CSX), EBay (EBAY), GE (GE), Goldman-Sachs (GS), Google (GOOG) IBM (IBM), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Wells Fargo (WFC).

The housing side story will start on Tuesday with the release of the NAHB’s housing market index, which should come in relatively unchanged from last month.  On Wednesday attention will shift to housing starts/permits and MBA mortgage applications.  But, be aware, December’s cold weather may lead to a disappointing housing starts release.  If this does occur, then I recommend taking a look at the activity in new permits, which tends to be a forward looking indicator for starts—new permits rose 6% in November.  Other indicators to watch this week are Tuesday’s TIC data; Wednesday’s PPI release; and Thursday’s jobless claims, leading indicators and Philly Fed Survey.  The index of leading indicators should post its ninth consecutive month in positive territory.

Fed speak is non-existent this week ahead of the January 26-27 FOMC meeting, however, we could hear see some important headlines around Chairman Bernanke’s confirmation hearing.  His current term as Chairman is set to expire January 31st.  I anticipate that Bernanke will be reconfirmed, but any indications to the contrary have the potential to send ripples through the market.

Another key event this week will be Tuesday’s special election in Massachusetts to fill the seat of the late U.S. Sen. Edward Kennedy.  If the Republican candidate, Scott Brown, takes the election from Martha Coakley, then democrats lose their filibuster-proof, 60-seat majority in the U.S. Senate, potentially complicating the passage of healthcare reform. Scott Brown has indicated he is not in favor of the current reform, while interim Senator Paul Kirk—currently sitting in Kennedy’s old seat—would vote in favor of it.

However, I am no political pundit, but a Republican victory could prompt Democrats to expedite a vote on healthcare reform to exploit a gap between the special election and what would be Mr. Brown’s swearing in. From my understanding, the election cannot be certified until all absentee and military ballots are tallied, which I am told could take up to 10 days after the actual election–other sources have indicated Brown’s swearing in could be pushed back to as late as February 20th. To the outrage of some voters, this could award Democrats the opportunity to pass the reform while maintaining their filibuster proof majority. The bottom line here is a Republican victory in Massachusetts will likely lead to a political pickle. This is just something to think about while watching Tuesday’s results.

Here is the rest of this week’s US calendar:

Monday, Jan. 18

Holiday: All Markets Closed

Tuesday, Jan. 19

9:00 a.m. EST: November’s Treasury International Capital (TIC) Data (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This report highlights the flow of financial instruments to and from the U.S. It indicates foreign demand for U.S. financial instruments and thus tends to have a stronger impact on the dollar and the bond markets than it does on equities.  But, given the recent record levels for treasury auctions, it will be interesting to monitor foreign demand for US debt.

10:00 a.m. EST: January’s State Street Investor Confidence Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The State Street Investor’s Confidence Index measures investors’ tolerance to risk. According to the State Street report in December, “This month’s up-tick in global investor confidence stemmed largely from an improvement in the mood in Asia, where risk appetite rose to an eight-month high,” commented Froot. “Elsewhere portfolio reallocations were modest. With three of the four indices over the neutral level of 100, institutions are continuing to add to their risky asset positions, but at a slower pace than was evident earlier in the year. Investors will be watching for signs of renewed economic growth, and well-designed exit strategies from policy makers, before making more significant reallocations towards risk in 2010.”

1:00 p.m. EST: January’s Housing Market Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): After receiving a boost from the original first time home buyer tax credit and the Fed’s MBS purchase program—to keep mortgage rates low—the HMI has been relatively flat , trending slightly down from September’s peak.  Concerns by builders regarding unemployment, consumer credit, and the eventual impact of the expiration of temporary government programs designed to bolster the sector will likely keep the HMI suppressed for the time being.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a reading of 17 in January compared to 16 in December; any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment toward the sector.

Wednesday, Jan. 20

7:00 a.m. EST: MBA Mortgage Applications (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This index, which tracks new mortgage applications tend to be a reasonable forward looking indicator for home sales, but issues including customers filling out numerous applications could skew the index.  Applications rose 14.3% last week after rising a modest 0.5% a week prior.  Refinance applications jumped 21.8%, while purchase applications rose just 0.8%.  A wave of buyers, filling out multiple mortgage applications, that were looking to take advantage of the first time home buyer tax credit–originally set to expire on Nov. 30th–have already completed their transactions, and have recently reduced the demand for mortgages.    However, the recent extension of the first time home buyer tax credit should eventually bring a new set of buyers into the market, which could help support the purchase index over the coming months.

7:45 a.m. EST: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This weekly index tracks aggregate store sales across major US retailers, accounting for roughly 10% of total retail sales.  Last week’s number fell -3.0% compared to an increment of +1.5% a week prior.

8:30 a.m. EST: Housing Starts (Risk: Negative, Market Reaction: Significant): Given extremely cold weather across the country in December, I would not be surprised to see housing starts disappoint what I believe is an overly optimistic consensus forecast.  However, November’s data indicated a 6.0% rise in permits, which tends to be a good forward looking indicator for starts.  With this in mind, if starts disappoint, then it will be important to monitor any changes to permits data for indications of future strength. The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is calling for housing starts to rise to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 579,000, compared to 574,000 in November. 

8:30 a.m. EST: December’s Producer Price Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): The PPI surprised to the upside in November rising 1.8%, largely due to an increment in energy prices.  But, December’s PPI should show a very marginal change, with a modest decline even within the realm of possibility, especially after November’s large gain.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for now change in the PPI, while the Core-PPI is anticipated to rise by 0.1%.  This release loses some importance since the CPI was already released last week.

8:55 a.m. EST: Redbook (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The Redbook is a weekly measurement of chain stores, discounters, and department store sales.  This indicator tends to be less significant than the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales in forecasting retail sales.  According to the Redbook store sales rose 1.4% last week on a yearly basis.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Petroleum Status Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report measures US domestic petroleum inventories.  Large unanticipated swings in this index could have a significant impact on energy prices.  Last week this report showed an increase of 3.7 million barrels versus a rise of 1.3 million barrels a week prior.

Thursday, Jan. 21

8:30 a.m. EST: Jobless Claims (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Initial claims rose 11K last week to 444K, after rising 1K a week prior.  The four week moving average improved to 440,750 from 449,750.  An improving trend in initial jobless claims are indicative of fewer job losses in the BLS’s monthly employment report; however, given the still elevated number of claims the job situation will get worse before it gets better.  The current Bloomberg consensus is for an initial jobless claims reading of 440K on Thursday.   Given the holidays—Martin Luther King Jr. Day this week—tricky seasonal adjustment factors can skew weekly claims data.

10:00 a.m. EST: December’s Leading Indicators (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): December’s leading indicator index will likely show its 9th consecutive month of positive readings.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is expecting a +0.7% rise for the month, compared to a +0.9% increment in November.  The biggest positive contributions for the index will likely come from the yield curve, followed by initial jobless claims, and stock prices; while money supply is expected to be the largest negative factor.

10:00 a.m. EST: January’s Philly Fed Survey (Risk: Negative, Market Reaction: Significant): Recent weakness in the Philly Fed’s 6-month outlook index could translate into weakness for this month’s release.  The 6-month outlook index peaked in June at 60.1 and has since fallen to 24.4 in December.  Additionally, in December the survey’s new orders component fell to 6.5 from 14.8.  But, it should be noted that the New York Fed survey surprised to the upside last week, which could bode well for the Philly release.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a reading of 18.0, compared to 20.4 in December. 

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Natural Gas Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report highlights domestic natural gas inventories, which could have a significant impact on the energy sector.

4:30 p.m. EST: Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Since the Fed’s shift to quantitative easing, the balance sheet has become one method to measure to the Fed’s effectiveness.  The market will pay close attention to the reserve bank credit component, which measures factors supplying   providing reserves into the banking system.  The Fed’s balance sheet rose to a record last week to US$2.274trn from US$2.216trn, on increased purchases of agency debt and mortgage backed securities.  The fed’s balance sheet has slowly been shifting away from emergency lending facilities to Treasuries, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities to help moderate long-term interest rates.

Friday, Jan. 22

10:00 a.m. EST: State & Regional Unemployment Rates (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This data is unlikely to cause any market reaction, but will add details behind December’s employment report.

Enjoy the weekend!

Retweet

US Economics Week Ahead: Retail Sales & The Start of Earnings

January 8th, 2010 Michael McDonough Comments off

With employment out of the way—for now—onto earnings; Alcoa is scheduled to kick of the 4Q09 earnings season with its report on Monday.  Earnings might be stealing most of the show this week, but don’t count out economic data with the release of a critically important retail sales release on Thursday and a torrent of Fed speak prior to the blackout period for the Jan 26-27 FOMC meeting.  Speaking of the Fed the market will gain access to the Beige Book on Wednesday, which should continue to indicate marginal upticks in economic activity throughout the fed’s districts.  Other important releases include; Thursday’s jobless claims and business inventories; and Friday’s CPI, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, industrial production, and consumer sentiment releases.

Don’t ignore the fed speak.  It is my belief that as we move closer to a new fed tightening cycle the first indications of a shift in the Fed’s bias will come through subtle or maybe even not so subtle clues in fed officials numerous public speeches.  The next indicator will come in the form of the FOMC minutes, but that is another story for another day.  Given the weakness in last week’s employment report I still think we are a ways off from a new tightening cycle—November 2010—, but I am not the one making the decisions, so I recommend listening to Fed officials closely as we move closer to an inevitable move.

Other notable companies reporting earnings next week include Intel (INTC) and JP Morgan (JPM).  Next week will also see the opening of the Detroit Auto Show on Monday, where heavy focus is likely to be placed on small and hybrid vehicles.  Finally, I wanted to thank everyone who has recently emailed me regarding the usefulness of this piece.  Additionally, I invite anyone with any comments or recommendations on how to make the Economic First Look even more useful to please shoot me an email.

Here is the rest of this week’s US calendar:

Monday, Jan. 11

12:40 p.m. EST: Dennis Lockhart, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President, will give a speech on the economy at the Rotary Club of Atlanta.

9:10 p.m. EST: James Bullard, the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President, will speak in Shanghai.

Tuesday, Jan. 12

7:45 a.m. EST: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This weekly index tracks aggregate store sales across major US retailers, accounting for roughly 10% of total retail sales.  Last week’s number rose +1.5% compared to an increment of +0.4% a week prior.  This week’s release will cover the first full in January.

8:30 a.m. EST: November’s International Trade (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): I anticipate that November’s trade balance will widen slightly as likely imports rose at a faster pace than exports, due to higher energy import costs.  In October, export growth surprised to the upside leading to a marginal contraction in the trade balance. It is usually expected that both exports and imports rise during the start of an economic recovery, while the trade balance widens.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for the trade balance to widen to -$35.0bn in November from -$32.9bn in October.

8:55 a.m. EST: Redbook (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The Redbook is a weekly measurement of chain stores, discounters, and department store sales.  This indicator tends to be less significant than the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales in forecasting retail sales.  According to the Redbook store sales rose 1.6% last week on a yearly basis.

7:00 p.m. EST: Charles Plosser, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President, will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Entrepreneurs Forum of Greater Philadelphia.

Wednesday, Jan. 13

7:00 a.m. EST: MBA Mortgage Applications (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This index, which tracks new mortgage applications tend to be a reasonable forward looking indicator for home sales, but issues including customers filling out numerous applications could skew the index.  Applications rose 0.5% last week after plummeting -22.8% a week prior.  Refinance applications fell -1.6%, while purchase applications rose 3.6%.  A wave of buyers, filling out multiple mortgage applications, that were looking to take advantage of the first time home buyer tax credit–originally set to expire on Nov. 30th–have already completed their transactions, and have recently reduced the demand for mortgages.    However, the recent extension of the first time home buyer tax credit should eventually bring a new set of buyers into the market, which could help support the purchase index over the coming months.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Petroleum Status Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report measures US domestic petroleum inventories.  Large unanticipated swings in this index could have a significant impact on energy prices.  Last week this report showed an increase of 1.3 million barrels versus a drop of -1.5 million barrels a week prior.

12:30 p.m. EST: Charles Evans, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President, will speak at the Corridor Economic Forecast Luncheon.

2:00 p.m. EST: Beige Book (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): In the Fed’s previous Beige Book all of its districts reported at least modest upticks in growth, and I anticipate this trend will continue in the current release.  The report covers the last week in November though the first week of January.  The Beige Book is used as an input at the FOMC’s monetary policy meetings, meaning it shouldn’t be ignored by investors.

2:00 p.m. EST: December’s Treasury Budget (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): December’s treasury budget will almost certainly show a record 15th consecutive month of deficits.  In November the monthly deficit totaled -$120.3 billion, bringing the government’s fiscal year to date total deficit up to -$296.7 billion.  December’s deficit may get some relief through TARP paybacks, but remain negative.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a deficit in December of -$92.0 billion.

Thursday, Jan. 14

8:30 a.m. EST: December’s Retail Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): After rising 1.3% in November, retails sales should experience its third consecutive month of growth in December.  This growth will likely be led by strong vehicle sales during the month, which rose to a pace of 11.2mn vehicles during the month from a pace of 10.9mn units in November.  Excluding the auto component, retail sales should show some growth, but at a more moderate rate.  Of course any surprise to the upside in this data would be welcomed by the market.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for retail sales to rise 0.4% in December, with retail sales ex-auto rising a more moderate 0.2%.

8:30 a.m. EST: Jobless Claims (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Initial claims rose 1K last week to 434K, after falling 22K a week prior.  The four week moving average improved to 450,250 from 460,250.  This week’s strong seasonal adjustment factor—the strongest of the year in fact—could have some sway over the weekly report.  Improving initial jobless claims are indicative of fewer job losses in the BLS’s monthly employment report; however, the job situation will still get worse before it gets better.  The current Bloomberg consensus is for an initial jobless claims reading of 437K on Thursday.

8:30 a.m. EST: Import and Exports Prices (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): A decline in energy prices during the month and a modest appreciation in the US dollar will likely helped to bring down import prices in December.

9:00 a.m. EST: RBC CASH Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The Royal Bank of Canada’s Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household (CASH) Index is a monthly measure of consumer attitudes toward investing, the economic outlook, and personal finances.  This index does hold some importance in so much that it tends to demonstrate a pretty significant correlation with the consumer sentiment index being released on Friday.

10:00 a.m. EST: November’s Business Inventories (Risk: Positive, Market Reaction: Moderate): Marginal attention is typically placed on this release, but this month the business inventories report takes on added significance. Economists use this release to help gauge the impact of the inventory cycle on fourth quarter GDP growth.  What this means is economists will be using this data to confirm or alter their fourth quarter 2009 inventory projections, which could sway fourth quarter GDP projections.  Many economists—including myself—expect the inventory cycle will play a lead role in the current recovery.  It is important to note that the manufacturing and wholesale inventory components of the report have previously been released and rose +0.2% and +1.5%, respectively.  Therefore, the report’s retail inventory component—the only unknown figure— is the most important for investors to watch.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a rise in business inventories of 0.2%.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Natural Gas Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report highlights domestic natural gas inventories, which could have a significant impact on the energy sector.

4:30 p.m. EST: Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply—Current Week’s Release (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Since the Fed’s shift to quantitative easing, the balance sheet has become one method to measure to the Fed’s effectiveness.  The market will pay close attention to the reserve bank credit component, which measures factors supplying   providing reserves into the banking system.  The Fed’s balance sheet shrank marginally last week to US$2.216trn from US$2.219trn.  The fed’s balance sheet has slowly been shifting away from emergency lending facilities to Treasuries, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities to help moderate long-term interest rates.

Friday, Jan. 15

8:30 a.m. EST: December’s Consumer Price Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Headline consumer prices likely rose in December, albeit at a slightly more moderate pace than the 0.4% rise in November.  A bit of warning, on a year over year basis headline CPI will likely rise at the fastest pace in over a year due to extraordinarily low energy prices realized in the fourth quarter of 2008, this pattern will likely continue over the next few months and then normalize as past energy prices play catch-up.  Core CPI should remain relatively subdued during the month.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a monthly rise in headline CPI of 0.1%, with Core CPI anticipated to rise at the same pace.

8:30 a.m. EST: January’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Risk: Negative, Market Reaction: Significant): This release will be investors first window into the fed’s regional factory sector reports for 2010.  Over the prior two months this survey has lost significant ground falling to 2.6 in December from 34.6 in October—a reading over 0 signifies expansion.  In December the Richmond fed’s release fell below 0 for the first time in 7 months; ironically, Richmond was the first of the fed’s districts to indicate a marginal recovery.  Nevertheless, I do not anticipate the NY fed’s survey will follow suit.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a survey result of 13.0, compared to 2.6 in December.  The new orders component remained positive in December, but barely, so I recommend keeping a close eye on December’s number.  Additionally, don’t forget to watch the prices paid and employment components of the release.

8:30 a.m. EST: December’s Industrial Production (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Extremely cold weather across the country should help boost utility output during the month, which should help bolster December’s industrial output.  Growth in the manufacturing component should be relatively restrained during the month as aggregate hours worked in manufacturing fell -0.4% during December.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for an increment in industrial production of 0.6%, compared to 0.8% a month prior.  The same forecast anticipates capacity utilization to rise to 71.9% from 71.3% in November.

9:55 a.m. EST: Preliminary January Consumer Sentiment (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): I expect this index will be up marginally from its final reading of 72.5, on the back of early indications of improvements in the labor market, and incentives around the holiday season.  But, these positive factors will be playing a tug-of-war against negative factors including energy prices and what, despite improvements, is a weak labor market.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a reading of 74.0.

12:30 p.m. EST: Jeffrey Lacker, the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President, will speak about the economic outlook to the Richmond Risk Management Association.

2:30 p.m. EST: Janet Yellen, the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President, will give a speech on “Economic Environment for Innovation” at the Innovation and Equity Conference in San Francisco, CA

Enjoy the weekend!

Retweet

US Economics Week Ahead: 2010 Starts with a Bang

December 31st, 2009 Michael McDonough Comments off

It is a good thing investors will have the entire weekend to recover from their New Year’s celebrations, because 2010 is starting with a bang, at least in terms of economic data.  Undoubtedly, the week’s most critical release will be Friday’s employment report, where excitement is building that payrolls could show their first monthly advance since gaining 120K jobs in December 2007. What a difference a year makes, considering it was announced last year that payrolls fell -524K December.  Leading up to this release data-centric investors will analyzing both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing’s employment indices along with the ADP employment report for clues toward Friday’s release.

Other significant indicators this week include manufacturing ISM on Monday, pending home sales on Tuesday, non-manufacturing ISM and FOMC minute on Wednesday, and jobless claims and chain store sales on Thursday.  The manufacturing ISM should remain above 50 for the fifth consecutive month; however, weakness in some of the Fed’s regional manufacturing survey could place some negative pressure on the index leading to only a marginal gain from November’s release.  The FOMC minutes should prove to be a non-market moving event simply providing further details behind the Fed’s eventual exit strategy and the termination of its unprecedented accommodative policies.  Pending home sales should help provide some insight behind the health of home sales after the would-be expiration of the first time home buyer tax credit on November 30th.  Finally, chain store sales on Thursday will provide one of the first detailed looks at the holiday shopping season.

Fed speakers will be relatively active next week with Chairman Bernanke, Vice Chairman Kohn, and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart opening the week up on Sunday participating in a panel discussion for the American Economic Association in Atlanta.  On the earnings front, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Constellation Brands (STZ), Family Dollar Stores (FDO), and Monsanto (MON) are all expected to report this week.  Also, look for headlines from the 2010 Consumer Electronics Show that starts next week and could attract over 100K visitors.

Here is the rest of this week’s US calendar:

Monday, Jan. 4

10:00 a.m. EST: December’s ISM Manufacturing Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): The Manufacturing ISM Index should remain above 50 for the fifth consecutive month, but experience only a marginal gain from November’s reading of 53.6.  Weakness in some of the Fed’s regional surveys could place downward pressure on this month’s release; however, some of this pressure should be alleviated by the fact that in November the ISM New Orders index came in at a relatively robust 60.3.  It will be important to continue monitoring the ISM’s new orders, employment, and prices paid index for implications toward the future and other sectors of the economy.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for an ISM reading in December of 54.8, compared to 53.6 in November.

10:00 a.m. EST: November’s Construction Spending (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): Construction spending will likely remain weak in November, and downward revisions to past data are likely to continue.  Construction spending was unchanged in October, but after revisions declined by -1.6% in September.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a decline in construction spending of -0.5%.

10:15 a.m. EST: Dennis Lockhart, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President, will give a speech on government crisis response to the American Economic Association.

Tuesday, Jan. 5

December’s Motor Vehicle Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): Attractive dealer year-end incentives during December will likely help boost motor vehicle sales during the month.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast for domestic vehicle sales is an annual pace of 8.4 million units, compared to 8.2 million a month prior.

7:45 a.m. EST: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This weekly index tracks aggregate store sales across major US retailers, accounting for roughly 10% of total retail sales.  Given recent data supporting an increasing US saving rates and a worsening employment situation, this index could face some downward pressure.  Last week’s number rose +0.4% compared to an increment of +0.6% a week prior.

8:55 a.m. EST: Redbook (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The Redbook is a weekly measurement of chain stores, discounters, and department store sales.  This indicator tends to be less significant than the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales in forecasting retail sales.  According to the Redbook store sales rose 1.9% last week on a yearly basis.

10:00 a.m. EST: November’s Factory Orders (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): After rising 0.6% in October, factory orders should continue to rise in November on the back of relatively strong durable goods orders and refinery orders stemming from higher energy prices.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a rise in factory orders of 0.4%.

10:00 a.m. EST: November’s Pending Home Sales (Risk: Downside, Market Reaction: Significant): This release should help quantify the impact of what would have been the expiration of the first time homebuyer tax credit on November 30th.  It is expected that a wave of buyers rushed to close their purchases before the end of the month to qualify for the first time home buyer tax credit.  Mortgage applications have recently been on the decline to supporting this theory.  It is expected that an extension/expansion of the program will eventually bring a new group of home purchasers into the market.

Wednesday, Jan. 6

7:00 a.m. EST: MBA Mortgage Applications (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The MBA was closed last week so this week’s release will include two weeks of data. This index, which tracks new mortgage applications tend to be a reasonable forward looking indicator for home sales, but issues including customers filling out numerous applications could skew the index.  Applications fell 10.7% two weeks ago after rising 0.3% a week prior.  Refinance applications fell 10.1%, while purchase applications dropped -11.6%.  A wave of buyers, filling out multiple mortgage applications, that were looking to take advantage of the first time home buyer tax credit–originally set to expire on Nov. 30th–have already completed their transactions, and have recently reduced the demand for mortgages.    However, the recent extension of the first time home buyer tax credit should eventually bring a new set of buyers into the market, which could help support the purchase index over the coming months.

7:30 a.m. EST: December’s Challenger Job Cut Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This index measures the number of announced corporate mass layoffs, but does not take into account the timing of the actual layoffs.  Meaning layoffs announced in November may not actually take place until December, or even take place slowly over an extended period of time.  I anticipate this report will show continued improvements as companies have mostly completed large scale layoffs.

8:15 a.m. EST: December’s ADP Employment Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): The ADP Employment report is considered a good window into Friday’s critical payroll number.  Any significant swings in this release combined with unexpected shifts in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM employment indices could shift the consensus forecast for Friday’s employment release.

10:00 a.m. EST: December’s ISM Non-Manufacturing (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): After unexpectedly falling below 50 in November, investors will have the opportunity to decide whether this is the beginning of a new trend or a one off event.  Investors will also be paying close attention to the non-manufacturing ISM’s employment index, which could have some sway over the whisper number ahead of Friday’s employment report.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a reading of 50.4 compared to 48.7 a month prior.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Petroleum Status Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report measures US domestic petroleum inventories.  Large unanticipated swings in this index could have a significant impact on energy prices.  Last week this report showed a decline of -1.5 million barrels versus a drop of -4.9 million barrels a week prior.

2:00 p.m. EST: FOMC Minutes (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): The FOMC minutes should provide additional details behind the Fed’s eventual exit strategy and the termination of its unprecedented monetary easing.  However, I think it is still too early in the year to anticipate anything tremendously market moving from this report.

Thursday, Jan. 7

Chain Store Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): The market will be looking closely at this report as it is the first detailed report covering the holiday shopping season.  Early reports have indicated that the holiday shopping season may have been more robust than some had anticipated, but considering last year’s base this may not be as positive as it sounds.  Nevertheless, higher is better; I anticipate the strongest results will come from discount retailers as consumers grow increasingly budget conscious.

6:00 a.m. EST: Monster Employment Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Given the added significance of this week’s employment report this typically overlooked employment index could garner some extra attention. This survey conducted by Monster Worldwide Inc. measures online job demand.  According to the company, “The trend in online job availability has been largely flat for most of the year and remained so in November,” said Jesse Harriott, senior vice president and chief knowledge officer at Monster Worldwide. “While job losses have continued to ease, businesses remain cautious about adding to their payrolls in light of sustained economic uncertainty.”

8:30 a.m. EST: Jobless Claims (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Initial claims fell 22K last week to 432K, after falling 28K a week prior.  It is important to note that the Christmas holiday, and the seasonal adjustment around it, could be skewing last week’s data.  The four week moving average improved to 460,250 from 465,250.  Improving initial jobless claims are indicative of fewer job losses in the BLS’s monthly employment report; however, the job situation will still get worse before it gets better.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Natural Gas Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report highlights domestic natural gas inventories, which could have a significant impact on the energy sector.

1:00 p.m. EST: Tom Hoenig, the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President, will give a speech on the economic outlook.

4:30 p.m. EST: Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply—Current Week’s Release (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Since the Fed’s shift to quantitative easing, the balance sheet has become one method to measure to the Fed’s effectiveness.  The market will pay close attention to the reserve bank credit component, which measures factors supplying   providing reserves into the banking system.  The Fed’s balance sheet shrank marginally last week to US$2.219trn from US$2.221trn, due to marginal reduction in the Fed’s agency MBS.    The fed’s balance sheet has slowly been shifting away from emergency lending facilities to Treasuries, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities to help moderate long-term interest rates.

Friday, Jan. 8

8:30 a.m. EST: December’s Employment Situation (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Very Significant): The current Bloomberg consensus is for a change in payrolls of 0, versus a decline of -11K in November.  Individual forecasts range from -50K to +40K.  A steady reduction in the number of initial unemployment claims bodes well for improving payroll data, but I think we could see an eventual reversal of seasonal hires as the holiday shopping season comes to a close in the months ahead.  I will be paying close attention to the index’s temporary employment index, which recently has been improving, and is a good forward looking indicator toward payrolls.  I continue to believe, despite a potentially positive reading in December, the employment situation will get worse before it stabilizes and begins to improve, albeit gradually, in 2Q10.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast for the unemployment rate is 10.0%, unchanged from November.

10:00 a.m. EST: Wholesale Trade (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This indicator measure the level of inventories and sales by US wholesalers.  It is generally considered a good forward looking indicator toward trends in consumer behavior as stores typically ramp up inventories prior to any anticipated increment in sales.  It is important to note that this data is on a two month lag.

1:35 p.m. EST: Jeffrey Lacker, the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President, will speak at the Maryland Bankers Association “First Friday” Economic Outlook Forum.

3:00 p.m. EST: November’s Consumer Credit (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): I anticipate that little has changed in this sector, and we should continue to see a decline in consumer credit in the face of consumers less willing to borrow and banks less willing to lend.  November would be the tenth consecutive month consumer credit has declined.  In October consumer credit declined by -$3.5 billion, after declining by a revised -$8.9 billion in September.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a decline of consumer credit outstanding of -$5.0 billion for November.

Enjoy the weekend!

Retweet

US Economics Week Ahead: Quiet for the Holidays

December 24th, 2009 Michael McDonough 2 comments

The last week of 2009 bears some good news for investors, and that is there isn’t much of it.  The week ahead could very well be the quietest week of 2009.  However, not all is still, there are several quasi-important releases related to housing, consumer confidence, and manufacturing.  Data-centric investors will be analyzing the Dallas and Kansas City fed’s manufacturing reports along with the Chicago PMI for clues toward December’s ISM reading.  The week’s most lauded release should be December’s consumer confidence report on Tuesday.  Confidence should see a nice jump on what is generally perceived as an ongoing economic recovery.  Jobless claims could face some pressure this week on the back of inclement weather in the northeast, which has the potential to reduce employment in weather sensitive industries.  The treasury will be auctioning $118bn in notes during the week tying the record (set last month); the results of this auction could have some impact on markets.  Also, be on the lookout for after Christmas sales by retailers looking to bolster sales and attract customers who received store gift cards in their stocking.  In any case, enjoy the quiet week and have a great holiday!

Here is the rest of this week’s US calendar:

Monday, Dec. 28

10:30 a.m. EST: December’s Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This index is not highly publicized, but tracks manufacturing activity within the Dallas Feds jurisdiction.  Last month’s survey suggested, “Texas factory activity showed its first signs of growth in more than a year, according to business executives responding to November’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of state manufacturing conditions, turned positive for the first time since July 2008. Other key indexes of current factory activity—including capacity utilization, shipments, new orders and growth rate of orders—also moved into positive territory.

4:30 p.m. EST: Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply—Prior Week’s Release (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Since the Fed’s shift to quantitative easing, the balance sheet has become one method to measure to the Fed’s effectiveness.  The market will pay close attention to the reserve bank credit component, which measures factors supplying   providing reserves into the banking system.  The Fed’s balance sheet jumped last week to US$2.218trn from US$2.169trn, due increased purchases of agency MBS.    The fed’s balance sheet has slowly been shifting away from emergency lending facilities to Treasuries, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities to help moderate long-term interest rates.

Tuesday, Dec. 29

7:45 a.m. EST: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This weekly index tracks aggregate store sales across major US retailers, accounting for roughly 10% of total retail sales.  Given recent data supporting an increasing US saving rates and a worsening employment situation, this index could face some downward pressure.  Last week’s number rose +0.6% compared to a drop of +0.4% a week prior.

8:55 a.m. EST: Redbook (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The Redbook is a weekly measurement of chain stores, discounters, and department store sales.  This indicator tends to be less significant than the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales in forecasting retail sales.  According to the Redbook store sales rose 1.9% last week on a yearly basis.

9:00 a.m. EST: October’s S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): With the FHFA House Price Index moving higher in October after posting two weaker months, and  the Case-Shiller’s general upward trend over the prior five months—rising 3.1% during the third quarter—we should see another gain in October.

10:00 a.m. EST: December’s Consumer Confidence (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): An increment in the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to 72.5 from 67.4 in December should bode well for consumer confidence.  An improvement in confidence would be in-line with what is generally perceived as an economic recovery.   The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a reading of 47.5 compared to November’s reading of 53.0.

10:00 a.m. EST: December’s State Street Investor Confidence Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The State Street Investor’s Confidence Index measures investors’ tolerance to risk. According to the State Street report, “Across all regions, institutional investors are largely treading water; neither increasing nor reducing their aggregate holdings of risky assets,” commented Froot. “However, the aggregate figures mask some country- and region-specific views. This month, for example, institutional investors aggressively pared their holdings in selected markets, such as Australia, while continuing to add to their emerging markets holdings. Overall, investors are displaying some caution about the current level of equity valuations, and a desire to see more evidence of real economic activity and aggregate demand, particularly in the US, before adding to equity exposures.”

Wednesday, Dec. 30

7:00 a.m. EST: MBA Mortgage Applications (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This index, which tracks new mortgage applications tends to be a reasonable forward looking indicator for home sales, but issues including customers filling out numerous applications could skew the index.  Applications fell 10.7% last week after rising 0.3% a week prior.  Refinance applications fell 10.1%, while purchase applications dropped -11.6%.  A wave of buyers, filling out multiple mortgage applications, that were looking to take advantage of the first time home buyer tax credit–originally set to expire on Nov. 30th–have already completed their transactions, and have recently reduced the demand for mortgages.    However, the recent extension of the first time home buyer tax credit should eventually bring a new set of buyers into the market, which could help support the purchase index over the coming months.

9:45 a.m. EST: Chicago PMI (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): The Chicago PMI measures business activity in the mid-West, and is released one business day prior to the ISM. *I should note that the Chicago PMI is released several minutes early to subscribers, so the market could begin reacting to the data as early as 9:42 a.m.  This index is considered a forward looking indicator to the national ISM, so any large unexpected shifts in the Chicago PMI could impact trading.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a reading of 54.9, versus to 56.1 in November.  The PMI covers both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Petroleum Status Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report measures US domestic petroleum inventories.  Large unanticipated swings in this index could have a significant impact on energy prices.  Last week this report showed an unexpected decline of -4.9 million barrels versus a drop of -3.7 million barrels a week prior.

3:00 p.m. EST: Farm Prices (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Given the relationship between farms prices and food prices, this index could have significant implications on future headline CPI.

Thursday, Dec. 31

8:30 a.m. EST: Jobless Claims (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Initial claims fell 28K last week to 452K, after rising 17K a week prior.  The four week moving average improved to 465,250 from 467,500.  Improving initial jobless claims are indicative of fewer job losses in the BLS’s monthly employment report; however, the job situation will still get worse before it gets better.  Last week’s inclement weather could place some pressure on this week’s claims data.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Natural Gas Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report highlights domestic natural gas inventories, which could have a significant impact on the energy sector.

11:00 a.m. EST: December’s Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Data-centric investors will be looking at the Kansas City Fed’s mostly overlooked manufacturing survey for clues toward December’s ISM release.  Specifically, these investors will be watching the surveys new orders and shipments components.

4:30 p.m. EST: Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply—Current Week’s Release (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Since the Fed’s shift to quantitative easing, the balance sheet has become one method to measure to the Fed’s effectiveness.  The market will pay close attention to the reserve bank credit component, which measures factors supplying   providing reserves into the banking system.  The Fed’s balance sheet jumped last week to US$2.218trn from US$2.169trn, due increased purchases of agency MBS.    The fed’s balance sheet has slowly been shifting away from emergency lending facilities to Treasuries, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities to help moderate long-term interest rates.

Friday, Jan. 1

All Markets Closed—New Year’s Day!

Enjoy the weekend!

Retweet

US Economics Week Ahead: Retailers not Dreaming of a White Christmas

December 19th, 2009 Michael McDonough Comments off

Retailers are not dreaming of a white Christmas.  Whether a snowstorm impacting the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend will impact an arguably lackluster holiday shopping season is yet to be seen.  But, bad weather does have a tendency of keeping would be shoppers home, however, these shoppers will still have access to online stores, but given the proximity to the holiday, would likely be forced to dish out expedited shipping charges.  Despite the shortened week the market will be receiving several early Christmas presents including November’s new and existing home sales data, durable goods orders, personal income and outlays, and finally December’s final consumer sentiment reading.  Given the holiday many market participants will likely be away from their desks, which could cause higher than usually volatility on the back of light buying.  Investors will also be paying close attention to Thursday’s jobless claims data after disappointing data last week.

On the earnings front we will be hearing from Micron (MU), Red Hat (RHT), Walgreen (WAG), and Conagra (CAG).  Investors will also want to look for headlines from Iraq where it has been reported that Iran took over an oil well in the south of the country.  If the situation escalates, geopolitical instability in the Middle East not only has the potential cause a spike in oil prices, but could draw investors away from risk.  On oil, OPEC is scheduled to meet next week, and will likely keep production unchanged.  Enjoy the holidays.

Here is the rest of this week’s US calendar:

Monday, Dec. 21

8:30 a.m. EST: November’s Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The CFNAI is an index consisting of 85 separate data sets designed to encompass national economic activity and inflationary pressure. A reading of 0 indicates the economy is growing at the historical trend while a negative or positive result indicates the economy is growing below or above its historical average, respectively. Given the volatile nature of this index, the three-month moving average is typically quoted. This index remains somewhat obscure in the mainstream media and is likely to have a minimal impact on trading. This index has been trending upwards over the preceding nine months, and should show some improvement in November from its reading of -1.08 in October.

Tuesday, Dec. 22

7:45 a.m. EST: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This weekly index tracks aggregate store sales across major US retailers, accounting for roughly 10% of total retail sales.  Given recent data supporting an increasing US saving rates and a worsening employment situation, this index could face some downward pressure.  Last week’s number rose +0.4% compared to a drop of -1.3% a week prior.

8:30 a.m. EST: Third Quarter 2009 GDP (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): I anticipate that very little will change from the BEA’s preliminary estimate of third quarter 2009 GDP at 2.8%.  The preliminary estimate was down markedly from the BEA’s advanced estimate of 3.5%.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a reading of 2.8%.  This release should be a non-event barring any unforeseen revisions.

8:30 a.m. EST: Third Quarter Revised Corporate Profits (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The importance of this release is somewhat muted given its timing toward the end of the 3Q09 earnings season.  However, since these profits tie into GDP growth, and do not always move lock step with individual corporations’ aggregate earnings data, the data can have an unexpected impact on growth.  The original 3Q09 corporate profits release indicated profits grew at 10.6%.

8:55 a.m. EST: Redbook (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The Redbook is a weekly measurement of chain stores, discounters, and department store sales.  This indicator tends to be less significant than the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales in forecasting retail sales.  According to the Redbook store sales rose 1.5% last week on a yearly basis.

10:00 a.m. EST: November’s Existing Home Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Pending home sales rose 3.7% in October, which should bode well for November’s existing home sales.  Existing home sales jumped 10.1% in October, primarily due to buyers rushing contracts to take advantage of the first time home buyer tax credit prior to its original expiration in November.  The supply of existing homes continued to fall to 7.0 months from 8.0 months in September. The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a rate of existing home sales of 6.25 million in November versus 6.10 million in October.

10:00 a.m. EST: FHFA House Price Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) monthly house price index is compiled by using loan data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which means all the data within the index consists of conventional mortgages within the limitations of the GSE’s.  The FHFA’s monthly purchase only index was unchanged in September, while August’s reading was revised down to -0.5% from -0.3%.  The monthly index tends to be relatively volatile, but should continue to trend up in-line with the Case-Shiller home price index.

Wednesday, Dec. 23

7:00 a.m. EST: MBA Mortgage Applications (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This index, which tracks new mortgage applications tends to be a reasonable forward looking indicator for home sales, but issues including customers filling out numerous applications could skew the index.  Applications rose 0.3% last week after rising 8.5% a week prior.  Refinance applications rose modestly be 0.9%, while purchase applications fell -0.1%.  A wave of buyers, filling out multiple mortgage applications, that were looking to take advantage of the first time home buyer tax credit–originally set to expire on Nov. 30th–have already completed their transactions, and have recently reduced the demand for mortgages.    However, the recent extension of the first time home buyer tax credit should eventually bring a new set of buyers into the market, which could help support the purchase index over the coming months.

8:30 a.m. EST: November’s Personal Income and Outlays (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Personal income should continue to extend it gains, growing for a fifth consecutive month, while spending should also rise on stronger motor vehicle sales during November.  More importantly, headline and core CPI should remain relatively tame, placing inflationary concerns on the back burner, at least for the time being.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for an increase in income of 0.5% (0.2% in October), and an increase in spending of 0.6% (0.7% in October), while core PCE is anticipated to rise a modest 0.1% (0.2% in October) in November.

9:55 a.m. EST: December’s Final Consumer Sentiment (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): December’s preliminary consumer sentiment index jump to 73.4 from a reading of 67.4 in November.  Improving market conditions and some better than anticipated labor data during the month should provide a modest bump in December’s final sentiment reading.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a reading of 73.5.

10:00 a.m. EST: November’s New Home Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): As with existing home sales, new home sales likely rose in November.  The rate of new home sales in October was the highest rate since September 2008, and November’s release should be even higher.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for the rate of new home sales to increase to 440K from 430K a month prior.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Petroleum Status Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report measures US domestic petroleum inventories.  Large unanticipated swings in this index could have a significant impact on energy prices.  Last week this report showed an unexpected decline of -3.7 million barrels versus a drop of -3.8 million barrels a week prior.

Thursday, Dec. 24

8:30 a.m. EST: November’s Durable Goods (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): Durable goods orders should recover a portion of October’s -0.6% decline on the back of stronger motor vehicle sales during the month.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for an increment in durable goods orders of 0.5%, versus a drop of -0.6% a month prior. Unfortunately, last month’s number excluding the volatile transportation component fell -1.3%.  Additionally, an unexpected jump in civilian aircraft orders last month (+50%) may have been overstated and I anticipate this could lead to a strong drop of this component in November.

8:30 a.m. EST: Jobless Claims (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Initial claims rose 7K last week to 480K, after rising 17K a week prior. Despite the increment in last week’s claim data the four week moving average improved to 467,500 from 473,750.  Improving initial jobless claims are indicative of fewer job losses in the BLS’s monthly employment report; however, the job situation will still get worse before it gets better.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is expecting claims to come in at 470K, a decrease of -10K from last week.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Natural Gas Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report highlights domestic natural gas inventories, which could have a significant impact on the energy sector.

4:30 p.m. EST: Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Since the Fed’s shift to quantitative easing, the balance sheet has become one method to measure to the Fed’s effectiveness.  The market will pay close attention to the reserve bank credit component, which measures factors supplying   providing reserves into the banking system.  The Fed’s balance sheet jumped last week to US$2.218trn from US$2.169trn, due increased purchases of agency MBS.    The fed’s balance sheet has slowly been shifting away from emergency lending facilities to Treasuries, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities to help moderate long-term interest rates.

Friday, Dec. 25

All Markets Closed—Merry Christmas!

Enjoy the weekend!

Retweet

US Economics Week Ahead: No Change by the Fed

December 12th, 2009 Michael McDonough Comments off

There is no doubt that this week’s FOMC meeting will steal the economic headlines, however, the result is likely to be rather anticlimactic.  I do not anticipate any major changes to the FOMC’s statement, and certainly no shift in the target rate—despite last month’s better than expected employment data.  The Fed will not view a single data point as the start of a trend, and regardless of being on their minds the employment data will not have a significant impact at this meeting.  After Wednesday we will inevitably be one meeting closer to an eventual rate hike, however, ahead of any hike the Fed would remove the phrase  ‘extended period’ from the statement, and I do not yet believe that is in the cards.

Other important indicators this week include the producer price index, consumer price index, and industrial production.  On the inflation front both headline producer and consumer prices will face some upward pressure due to higher energy and food prices, while the core releases should remain tame.  Industrial production will face some headwinds from a relatively mild month reducing utility output, which should be more than offset by manufacturing output.  An increase in aggregate manufacturing hours worked during the month help to support this belief.

During the week we will also hear earnings from FedEx (FDX), Best Buy (BBY), Nike (NKE), Oracle (ORCL), and Research in Motion (RIMM) to name a few.  In other news, the Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote Thursday on the reconfirmation of Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke.  Boeing is also expected to conduct its first test flight of their new 787 Dreamliner, after numerous delays. Finally, President Obama will attend the UN Climate summit in Copenhagen to push for several environmental initiatives.

Here is the rest of this week’s US calendar:

Monday, Dec. 14

Nothing

Tuesday, Dec. 15

First day of the FOMC meeting

7:45 a.m. EST: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This weekly index tracks aggregate store sales across major US retailers, accounting for roughly 10% of total retail sales.  Given recent data supporting an increasing US saving rates and a worsening employment situation, this index could face some downward pressure.  Last week’s number fell -1.3% compared to a drop of -0.1% a week prior.

8:30 a.m. EST: November’s Producer Price Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): Rising food and energy prices during the month will likely place some upward momentum on the November’s PPI.  However, increments in the core number should be only modestly positive after falling -0.6% in October.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a monthly increment in headline PPI of 1.0%, compared to 0.2% for the core release.

8:30 a.m. EST: December’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Risk: Negative, Market Reaction: Moderate): Recent weakness in the manufacturing sector, combined with a declining new orders index could place additional downward pressure on the NY fed’s manufacturing survey for December after falling 11 points to 23.51 in November.  Nevertheless, the current Bloomberg consensus forecast is anticipating a rise in the month to 25.0.  As always it will be important to monitor the new orders-a forward looking component—, prices paid, and employment aspects of the survey.

8:55 a.m. EST: Redbook (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The Redbook is a weekly measurement of chain stores, discounters, and department store sales.  This indicator tends to be less significant than the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales in forecasting retail sales.  According to the Redbook store sales rose 1.2% last week on a yearly basis.

9:00 a.m. EST: October’s Treasury International Capital (TIC) Data (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report highlights the flow of financial instruments to and from the U.S. It indicates foreign demand for U.S. financial instruments and thus tends to have a stronger impact on the dollar and the bond markets than it does on equities.  But, given the recent record levels for treasury auctions, it will be interesting to monitor foreign demand for US debt.

9:15 a.m. EST: Industrial Production (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): A significant increment in manufacturing hours worked during the month—a positive for industrial production—will be partially offset by an anticipated decline in utility output, stemming from relatively mild weather across the country.  With this in mind the current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a monthly increment in industrial production of 0.6%, versus 0.1% in October, with capacity utilization rising to 71.2% from 70.7%

1:00 p.m. EST: December’s Housing Market Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): The NAHB Housing Survey, which measures home builder confidence, should continue to benefit from the extension/expansion of the first time home buyer tax credit.  However, numerous headwinds still exist for the sector so any improvements in December are likely to be modest.  The index was unchanged at 17 in November.

Wednesday, Dec. 16

7:00 a.m. EST: MBA Mortgage Applications (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This index, which tracks new mortgage applications tends to be a reasonable forward looking indicator for home sales, but issues including customers filling out numerous applications could skew the index.  Applications rose 8.5% last week after rising 2.1% a week prior.  Refinance applications climbed 11.1%, while purchase applications rose 4.0% on the back of attractive interest rates.  A wave of buyers, filling out multiple mortgage applications, that were looking to take advantage of the first time home buyer tax credit–originally set to expire on Nov. 30th–have already completed their transactions, and have recently reduced the demand for mortgages.    However, the recent extension of the first time home buyer tax credit should eventually bring a new set of buyers into the market, which could help support the purchase index over the coming months.

8:30 a.m. EST: November’s Consumer Price Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): As with the PPI, higher energy and food prices during the month will likely add some pressure on headline CPI, while core CPI should only show a modest rise. The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for an increment of 0.4% for the headline number, and 0.1% for core.  It may be important to note that headline CPI will likely experience its first year over year gain since February 2009.

8:30 a.m. EST: November’s Housing Starts (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): Housing starts look to be up in November on the back of good weather, after falling more than anticipated in October. Additionally, construction jobs declined by only -27K during the month compared to -56K in October. The Bloomberg consensus forecast anticipates starts to rise to 575K, versus 529K in October; I anticipate that new building permits should also rise during the month after declining by -4.0% a month prior—permits tend to be a forward looking indicator toward starts.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Petroleum Status Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report measures US domestic petroleum inventories.  Large unanticipated swings in this index could have a significant impact on energy prices.  Last week this report showed a decline of -3.8 million barrels versus a jump of 2.1 million barrels a week prior.

2:15 p.m. EST: December’s FOMC Announcement (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Very Significant): Despite being the week’s most eagerly anticipated piece of economic news, the outcome is likely to be somewhat anticlimactic.  I do not anticipate any major changes compared to November’s FOMC statement, and certainly no shift in the target rate.  The Fed will not view one month of better than anticipated employment data as a trend, and thus it is very unlikely to have a significant impact at this meeting, however, it will be on their minds.  Nevertheless, we will be one meeting closer to an eventual rate hike, but I do not yet anticipate the removal of the key phrase ‘extended period’ from the FOMC’s statement.  The Fed will likely reiterate that employment is still lagging and that “with substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time”.

Thursday, Dec. 17

8:30 a.m. EST: Third Quarter’s Current Account (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The third quarter current account deficit likely widened on the back of a wider trade deficit stemming from more expensive energy imports.  The current account deficit totaled $99 billion in the second quarter.

8:30 a.m. EST: Jobless Claims (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Initial claims rose 17K last week to 474K, after falling 5K a week prior. Despite the decline in last week’s claim number the 4 week moving average improved to 473,750 from 481,500.  Improving initial claims are indicative of fewer job losses in the monthly employment report; however, the job situation will get worse before it gets better.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is expecting claims to come in at 465K, a decrease of -9K from last week.

10:00 a.m. EST: November’s Leading Indicators (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): November’s leading indicator index will likely show its 8th consecutive month of positive readings.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is expecting a +0.7% rise for the month, compared to a +0.3% increment in October.  The biggest positive contributions for the index will likely come from the yield curve, initial jobless claims, and the average workweek, while the University of Michigan’s consumer expectations index should be the largest negative factor.

10:00 a.m. EST: December’s Philadelphia Fed Survey (Risk: Negative, Market Reaction: Moderate): As with the NY fed survey, recent weakness in the manufacturing sector will likely place some downward pressure on the Philly fed survey.  The survey’s six month expectations index peaked at 60.1 in June and has since fallen to 36.8 in November—this tends to be an ominous sign for the spot reading.  Nevertheless, the current Bloomberg consensus forecast is anticipating only a modest decline to 16.5 from 16.7 in November.  However, the forecast range goes from a high of only 18.0 to a low of 6.9.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Natural Gas Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report highlights domestic natural gas inventories, which could have a significant impact on the energy sector.

4:30 p.m. EST: Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Since the Fed’s shift to quantitative easing, the balance sheet has become one method to measure to the Fed’s effectiveness.  The market will pay close attention to the reserve bank credit component, which measures factors supplying   providing reserves into the banking system.  The Fed’s balance sheet shrank last week to US$2.169trn from US$2.186trn, primarily due to a reduction in long-term loans to banks.    The fed’s balance sheet has slowly been shifting away from emergency lending facilities to Treasuries, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities to help moderate long-term interest rates.

Friday, Dec. 18

Quadruple Witching

Enjoy the weekend!

Retweet

US Economics Week Ahead: Black or Red Friday?

December 5th, 2009 Michael McDonough Comments off

This week is relatively quiet on the economic front, following last week’s tsunami of data culminating in a much better than anticipated employment release.  This week’s theme is the consumers, who have the potential to stymie last week’s positive sentiment depending on sales strength during the Black Friday shopping weekend.  The week’s primary release will be retail sales on Friday; however, the Tuesday’s typically overlooked Redbook and ICSC-Goldman Store Sales releases could provide some important clues toward Friday’s critical sales report.  Early indications have been mixed, with discount stores seeming to be more robust relative to their department and specialty store counterparts—another indication of a more value oriented consumer.

After Friday’s employment report investors will be paying close attention to Thursday’s jobless claims data hoping for additional evidence that Friday’s much better than anticipated employment report was not a one-off event.  Personally, I still believe the employment situation will get worse before it gets better, but is unquestionably heading in the right direction.  Other important indicators this week include Thursday’s international trade data and Treasury budget; and Friday’s preliminary consumer sentiment index and business inventories report.

We should also hear earnings this week from Costco Wholesale Corp., H&R Block Inc., Kroger, and Smithfield Foods.  Additionally, during a speech on the economy on Tuesday President Obama could discuss new proposals for job creation derived from his recent jobs summit.

Here is the rest of this week’s US calendar:

Monday, Dec. 7

12:00 p.m. EST: Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve Chairman, speaks to the Economics Club of Washington D.C.

3:00 p.m. EST: October’s Consumer Credit (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): Total outstanding consumer credit will likely decline for the 8th consecutive month—a series record—after declining by -$14.8 billion in September.  The decline should come entirely from a decline in revolving credit—credit cards—while non-revolving credit should show a modest increment due to auto sales.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a total decline in credit of -$9.3 billion for October.  This data would be more significant if retail sales and personal sales data were not already known for the month.

5:45 p.m. EST: William Dudley, the NY Fed President, is attending Columbia University’s World Leaders Forum

Tuesday, Dec. 8

7:45 a.m. EST: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This weekly index tracks aggregate store sales across major US retailers, accounting for roughly 10% of total retail sales.  Given recent data supporting an increasing US saving rates and a worsening employment situation, this index could face some downward pressure.  Last week’s number declined -0.1% compared to no change a week prior.

8:55 a.m. EST: Redbook (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The Redbook is a weekly measurement of chain stores, discounters, and department store sales.  This indicator tends to be less significant than the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales in forecasting retail sales.  According to the Redbook store sales rose 3.8% last week on a year over year basis.

10:00 a.m. EST: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): IBD’s economic optimism index is not closely watched by markets, but it could provide us with some direction for Friday’s preliminary consumer sentiment index.

Wednesday, Dec. 9

7:00 a.m. EST: MBA Mortgage Applications (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This index, which tracks new mortgage applications tends to be a reasonable forward looking indicator for home sales, but issues including customers filling out numerous applications could skew the index.  Applications rose 2.1% last week after dropping 5.5% a week prior.  Refinance applications climbed 1.7%, while purchase applications rose 4.1% on the back of attractive interest rates.  A wave of buyers, filling out multiple mortgage applications, that were looking to take advantage of the first time home buyer tax credit–originally set to expire on Nov. 30th–have already completed their transactions, and have recently reduced the demand for mortgages.    However, the recent extension of the first time home buyer tax credit should eventually bring a new set of buyers into the market, which could help support the purchase index over the coming months.

10:00 a.m. EST: Wholesale Trade (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This indicator measure the level of inventories and sales by US wholesalers.  It is generally considered a good forward looking indicator toward trends in consumer behavior as stores typically ramp up inventories prior to any anticipated increment in sales.  It is important to note that this data is on a two month lag.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Petroleum Status Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report measures US domestic petroleum inventories.  Large unanticipated swings in this index could have a significant impact on energy prices.  Last week this report showed an increment of 2.1 million barrels versus a jump of 1.0 million barrels a week prior.

Thursday, Dec. 10

8:30 a.m. EST: October’s International Trade Data (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): The US trade deficit likely grew further in October on the back of an increment in imports, offset by a smaller increment in exports.  It is not unusual for the trade gap to widen during a recovery period.  However, the current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a little changed trade deficit in October of $36.4 billion, compared to $36.5 billion in September.

8:30 a.m. EST: Jobless Claims (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Initial claims fell 5K last week to 457K, after falling 35K a week prior. This is the lowest level reading since September 2008. But, a portion of this improvement could be attributable to strong seasonal adjustment factors due to annual deviations in the date of the Thanksgiving holiday, but there is no doubt the news is getting better.  Improving initial claims are indicative of fewer job losses in the monthly employment report; however, the job situation will get worse before it gets better.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is expecting claims to come in at 460K, an increase of 3K from last week.

9:00 a.m. EST: RBC Cash Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): The Royal Bank of Canada’s Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household (CASH) Index is a monthly measure of consumer attitudes toward investing, the economic outlook, and personal finances.  This index does hold some importance in so much that it tends to demonstrate a pretty significant correlation with the consumer sentiment index being released next week.

10:00 a.m. EST: Third Quarter Quarterly Services Survey (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The U.S. Consensus Bureau’s Quarterly Services Survey estimates total operating revenue with a breakdown in revenue by client type (i.e. government, business, consumers, and individuals).  The survey is specific to the following baskets of sectors: 1) Information, 2) Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, 3) Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services, 4) Hospitals and Nursing and Residential Care Facilities.  The 2Q09 survey showed revenues decreased for all sectors excluding hospital and nursing and residential care facilities.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Natural Gas Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report highlights domestic natural gas inventories, which could have a significant impact on the energy sector.

12:45 p.m. EST: Elizabeth Duke, a Federal Reserve Board Governor, will speak at the Chicago Fed’s mortgage foreclosure policy conference in Chicago.

2:00 p.m. EST: November’s Treasury Budget (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): The Treasury Budget in November will likely show another record deficit.  In October—the first month of the government’s fiscal year—the deficit reached -$176.4 billion compared to -$155.5 billion a year prior.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast for November is a deficit of -$135.0 billion, to help put this into perspective the average deficit over the past 10 years in November is -$68.4 billion.

4:30 p.m. EST: Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Since the Fed’s shift to quantitative easing, the balance sheet has become one method to measure to the Fed’s effectiveness.  The market will pay close attention to the reserve bank credit component, which measures factors supplying   providing reserves into the banking system.  The Fed’s balance sheet shrank last week to US$2.183trn from US$2.189trn.    The fed’s balance sheet has slowly been shifting away from emergency lending facilities to Treasuries, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities to help moderate long-term interest rates.

Friday, Dec. 11

8:30 a.m. EST: November’s Retail Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Several factors should help bolster retail sales in November including higher auto sales, new video game releases—Modern Warfare 2—, and higher gasoline prices.  However, early indicators toward consumer sales during the popular Black Friday weekend have been mixed.  It would appear discount stores sales continue to outperform their department and specialty store counterparts.  Look toward Tuesday’s Redbook and ICSC-Goldman Store Sales for additional clues toward this release.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for an increase in headline retail sales of 0.9% versus 1.4% a month prior, while retail sales ex-autos is expected to rise 0.5%, compared to 0.2% in October.  This would be te fourth consecutive month of growth for retail sales ex-autos.

8:30 a.m. EST: November’s Import and Export Prices (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The rising cost of oil in November will undoubtedly place upward pressure on the import price index.  Lower natural gas prices during the month will help to offset some increments in other imported commodities including gold and copper, but the ex-petroleum price index should still remain positive. 

9:55 a.m. EST: Preliminary December Consumer Sentiment (Risk: Positive, Market Reaction: Moderate): December’s preliminary consumer sentiment should show at least a modest gain from November’s final reading of 67.4.  For hints toward the direction of this indicator look at Tuesday’s IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and ABC News consumer comfort index released Tuesday evening.  The current Bloomberg consensus is for a reading of 68.2 compared to 67.4 in November.

10:00 a.m. EST: October’s Business Inventories (Risk: Positive, Market Reaction: Moderate): The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a decline in inventories of -0.2% compared to a drop of -0.4% a month prior.  Despite the consensus forecast, factory inventories, which rose +0.4% in October, realizing its first gain in 14 months, providing some upward momentum for the release.  Concurrently wholesale inventories are anticipated to fall -0.4%—released on Wednesday—, while retail trade is expected to decline by -0.1%

Enjoy the weekend!

Retweet

US Economics Week Ahead: Jobs to the Rescue?

November 28th, 2009 Michael McDonough Comments off

This week investors face a barrage of data in addition to Chairman Bernanke’s Senate confirmation hearing.  On the economic front, Friday’s employment report should steal the show followed closely Tuesday’s manufacturing ISM release. Both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM reports have indicated expansion over the past three months, and should again in November, albeit at a potentially slower pace due to some weakness in the Fed districts’ manufacturing surveys during the month.

Leading up to Friday’s employment report investors will be paying close attention to the ADP and both the ISM and Non-ISM employment indices, which have the potential to sway the current market consensus forecast of a -100K decline in payrolls. Other notable indicators this week include Monday’s Chicago PMI; Tuesday’s motor vehicle sales, construction spending, and pending home sales; Wednesday’s Beige Book; Thursday’s jobless claims and non-manufacturing ISM release; and finally Friday’s factory orders.

Other potential headline drivers this week include Fed talk from Charles Plosser and Jeffrey Lacker, the start of the Senate’s debate on healthcare, President Obama’s job’s forum, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s testimony before the Senate Agriculture Committee Wednesday.

Here is the rest of this week’s US calendar:

Monday, Nov. 30

*9:45 a.m. EST: November’s Chicago PMI (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): The Chicago PMI measures business activity in the mid-West, and is released one business day prior to the ISM. *I should note that the Chicago PMI is released several minutes early to subscribers, so the market could react at 9:42 a.m. on the news.  This index is considered a forward looking indicator to the national ISM, so any large unexpected shifts in the Chicago PMI could impact trading.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a reading of 53.0, versus to 54.2 in October.  The PMI could experience some upward momentum stemming from a 15 point increase in the new orders index.  The PMI covers both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

10:30 a.m. EST: November’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This index is not highly publicized, and tracks manufacturing activity within the Dallas Feds jurisdiction.  Last month’s survey suggested, “Texas factory activity declined in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index—a key indicator of current manufacturing activity—edged further into negative territory, suggesting output in October contracted after remaining stable in September.”

3:00 p.m. EST: Farm Prices (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Given the relationship between farms prices and food prices, this index could have significant implications on future headline CPI.

Tuesday, Dec. 1

November’s Motor Vehicle Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): Motor vehicle sales will likely edge down slightly in November, which is historically a weak month for auto sales.  Auto sales climbed 17.2% in October.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for auto sales of 7.75 million compared to 7.90 million in October.  However, it should be noted that if this forecast is realized, then auto sales would finish positive for the first time on an annual basis since November 2007.

7:45 a.m. EST: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This weekly index tracks aggregate store sales across major US retailers, accounting for roughly 10% of total retail sales.  Given recent data supporting an increasing US saving rates and a worsening employment situation, this index could face some downward pressure.  Last week’s number indicated no change in store sales compared to a decline of -0.1% a week prior.

8:55 a.m. EST: Redbook (Risk: Negative, Market Reaction: Marginal): The Redbook is a weekly measurement of chain stores, discounters, and department store sales.  This indicator tends to be less significant than the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales in forecasting retail sales.  According to the Redbook store sales were rose 2.8% last week on a year over year basis.

10:00 a.m. EST: November’s ISM Manufacturing Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): The ISM could face some downward pressure during the month after other manufacturing indices including the NY and Richmond Fed indices experienced declines in November.  It will also be important for investors to pay close attention to the forward looking new orders index, along with the employment index for clues towards Friday’s payroll release.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a reading of 55.0 versus 55.7, a month prior.  The forecast range is from 53.8 to 56.0.

10:00 a.m. EST: October’s Construction Spending (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Construction spending will likely decline modestly after rising 0.8% in September.  Construction spending was revised down in August from +0.8% to -0.1% after experiencing a surprise gain in September.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast   is for a decline in spending of -0.4%.

10:00 a.m. EST: October’s Pending Home Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): Pending home sales have been on a tear providing plenty of momentum for existing and new home sales.  Pending home sales rose 6.1% in September, which was the index’s 8th consecutive month of gains for the index—the longest streak in the index’s history.

12:20 p.m. EST:  Charles Plosser, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President, will discuss the economic outlook.

Wednesday, Dec. 2

7:00 a.m. EST: MBA Mortgage Applications (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This index, which tracks new mortgage applications tends to be a reasonable forward looking indicator for home sales, but issues including customers filling out numerous applications could skew the index.  Applications fell 4.5% last week after dropping 2.5%% a week prior.  Refinance applications dropped 9.5%, while purchase applications rose 9.6%.  A wave of buyers, filling out multiple mortgage applications, that were looking to take advantage of the first time home buyer tax credit–originally set to expire on Nov. 30th–have already completed their transactions, and have recently reduced the demand for mortgages.    However, the recent extension of the first time home buyer tax credit should eventually bring a new set of buyers into the market, which could help support the purchase index over the coming months.

7:30 a.m. EST: Challenger Job Cut Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This index measures the number of announced corporate mass layoffs, but does not take into account the timing of the actual layoffs.  Meaning layoffs announced in November may not actually take place until December, or even take place slowly over an extended period of time.

8:15 a.m. EST: ADP Employment Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): The ADP Employment report is considered a good window into Friday’s critical payroll number.  Any significant swings in this release combined with unexpected shifts in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM employment indices could shift the consensus forecast for Friday’s employment release.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Petroleum Status Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report measures US domestic petroleum inventories.  Large unanticipated swings in this index could have a significant impact on energy prices.  Last week this report showed an increment of 1.0 million barrels versus a decline of -0.9 million barrels a week prior.

2:00 p.m. EST: Beige Book (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): Anecdotal evidence toward growth in the Fed’s Beige Book has slowly been turning more positive, which has recently been demonstrated through other economic indicators.  This report is typically released two weeks prior to FOMC meetings.

Thursday, Dec. 3

Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman, is scheduled to appear for a confirmation hearing for the Senate Banking Committee.

President Obama will be holding a conference with leaders from the business, labor, finance and the nonprofit sectors.

Monster Employment Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This survey conducted by Monster Worldwide Inc. measures online job demand.  According to the company, “The rise in the October Index, along with an improvement in the annual rate, indicate a mild expansion in the underlying employer demand for workers” said Jesse Harriott, senior vice president and chief knowledge officer at Monster Worldwide. “While the decline in consumer confidence has likely contributed to reduced job demand in the retail and hospitality sectors, employers are actively recruiting in the healthcare and public sectors, resulting in stability of the overall Index.”

November’s Chain Store Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): US chain store sales should remain relatively flat to up modestly during the month on the back of mixed retail results.  Relatively strong performance in the ICSC-Goldman Sachs weekly chain store sales index should bode well for retailers, but numerous headwinds still exist, including a weak labor market and wavering consumer confidence reducing spending.

8:30 a.m. EST: Jobless Claims (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Initial claims fell 35K last week to 466K, after showing no change a week prior. This is the lowest level reading since September 2008. But, a portion of this improvement was due to a strong seasonal adjustment factors due to annual deviations in the date of the Thanksgiving holiday—this could add some volatility to the index next week.  Nevertheless, claims continue to trend down and are indicative of fewer job losses in the monthly employment report, however, the job situation will still continue to get worse before it gets better.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is expecting claims to come in at 485K, an increase of 19K form last week.

8:30 a.m. EST: Final Third Quarter Productivity and Costs (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): The recent revision of third quarter GDP to 2.8% from 3.5%, will likely lead to a minor downward revision to last quarter’s stellar productivity number.  The Bloomberg consensus forecast is expecting a revised quarterly increase in productivity of 8.6%, compared to the original release indicating a jump of 9.5%. But, strong gains in productivity could cause employers to delay hiring as they are now receiving more output from fewer workers.  The Bloomberg consensus forecast is also anticipating an upward revision to unit labor costs from -5.2% to -4.2%.

10:00 a.m. EST: November’s ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): The ISM non-manufacturing index should experience a modest rise during the month, realizing the third consecutive month of a reading over 50.  It will also be important to monitor the index’s employment component, which could impact Friday’s employment situation forecasts.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a reading of 52.0 compared to 50.6 in October. 

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Natural Gas Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report highlights domestic natural gas inventories, which could have a significant impact on the energy sector.

4:30 p.m. EST: Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Since the Fed’s shift to quantitative easing, the balance sheet has become one method to measure to the Fed’s effectiveness.  The market will pay close attention to the reserve bank credit component, which measures factors supplying   providing reserves into the banking system.  The Fed’s balance sheet shrank last week to US$2.189trn from US$2.192trn, after ballooning two weeks prior.    The fed’s balance sheet has slowly been shifting away from emergency lending facilities to Treasuries, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities to help moderate long-term interest rates.

Friday, Dec. 4

8:30 a.m. EST: November’s Employment Situation Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Very Significant): Continued second derivative improvements in the labor market should help slow the decline in payrolls after last month’s -190K drop.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast for November’s payrolls is a decline of -100K, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 10.2%.  It will be important to monitor this week’s ADP, ISM employment index, and non-ISM employment index for unexpected swings that could impact the consensus forecast.

10:00 a.m. EST:  Charles Plosser, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President, will give opening remarks at conference on Policy Lessons from the Economic and Financial Crisis in Philadelphia.

10:00 a.m. EST: September’s Factory Orders (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): A weak advanced durable goods release could place some downward pressure on factory orders. The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for a modest increment of 0.2%, compared to a rise of 0.9% in September.

1:15 p.m. EST:  James Bullard, the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President, will speak at the Philly Fed’s conference.

Enjoy the weekend!

Retweet

US Economics Week Ahead: Is There Time for Turkey?

November 21st, 2009 Michael McDonough Comments off

The market will be providing a cornucopia of data this week centered on Tuesday and Wednesday, which you can mull over as you begin brining your turkeys—as an aside here’s the recipe I will be following this year.  Also, I wrote an interesting column on Friday for Real Money titled ‘Talking Turkey on Agricultural Trends’ that I recommend you read.

The market will digest 15 important data releases in just three days.  But here’s what you should be paying attention to; the week’s most critical data will likely come in the form of the FOMC minutes, home sales, personal income and outlays, and the first revision of third quarter GDP, which likely won’t look as rosy as the advanced estimate.  On the housing front we will get the FHFA and Case Shiller Home Price Indices.  The MBA mortgage application index has also been garnering more attention as purchase applications continue to plummet to 12 year lows.  Looking toward the consumer, both the Conference Board’s and University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment indices are schedule for release.  Finally, I should mention that on Wednesday we will be getting October’s durable goods data.

Despite the shortened week we will be hearing earnings from the final Dow Jones Industrial component, HP.  In addition to HP, we can expect earnings from Medtronic, Barnes and Nobles, Borders, and John Deere.  This week the Treasury will be auctioning off a record $118 billion in two-, five- and seven-year Treasury instruments, which could place some pressure on bond markets.  However, so far demand for bonds, despite record issuances has remained in place, partially on the back of higher foreign demand.

Here is the rest of this week’s US calendar:

Monday, Nov. 23

8:30 a.m. EST: October’s Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The CFNAI is an index consisting of 85 separate data sets designed to encompass national economic activity and inflationary pressure. A reading of 0 indicates the economy is growing at the historical trend while a negative or positive result indicates the economy is growing below or above its historical average, respectively. Given the volatile nature of this index, the three-month moving average is typically quoted. This index remains somewhat obscure in the mainstream media and is likely to have a minimal impact on trading. This index has shown improvements over the preceding eight months but is expected to decline slightly in October from its reading of -0.81 in September.

10:00 a.m. EST: October’s Existing Home Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Existing home sales could gain some upward momentum in October following a sharp rise in September’s pending home sales index, which rose 6.1%–this index has been up for eight consecutive months.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for existing home sales of 5.70 million 5.57 million a month prior.

Tuesday, Nov. 24

7:45 a.m. EST: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This weekly index tracks aggregate store sales across major US retailers, accounting for roughly 10% of total retail sales.  Given recent data supporting an increasing US saving rates and a worsening employment situation, this index could face some downward pressure.  Last week’s number indicated a weekly decline of -0.1% in store sales compared to a decline of -0.1% a week prior.

8:30 a.m. EST: First Revision of 3Q09 GDP (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): It is likely that the BEA’s advanced 3Q09 GDP estimate of 3.5% will be revised down significantly due to a higher than anticipated trade deficit, lower non-residential investment, slower than expected inventory rebuilding, and a small markdown due to worse than anticipated personal consumption data.   The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for the 3Q09 first revision GDP growth to come in at 2.8%.  This revision, especially if below the market consensus, could cause some market participants to start questioning the overall strength of the US economic recovery, however, the 4Q09 growth pace is still on pace to finish around 3.5%.  Looking ahead, stronger than anticipated inventory liquidations during the quarter will likely be made up during 4Q09 and the first part of 2010 helping buoy growth.  Looking further into 2010, growth should remain stable, but below trend.

8:30 a.m. EST: Third Quarter 2009 Corporate Profits (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The importance of this release is somewhat muted given its timing toward the end of the 3Q09 earnings season.  However, since these profits tie into GDP growth they do not always move lock step with individual corporations’ aggregate earnings data.  In 2Q09 corporate profits reportedly grew around 5.7%.

8:55 a.m. EST: Redbook (Risk: Negative, Market Reaction: Marginal): The Redbook is a weekly measurement of chain stores, discounters, and department store sales.  This indicator tends to be less significant than the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales in forecasting retail sales.  According to the Redbook store sales were rose 2.0% last week on a year over year basis.

9:00 a.m. EST: September’s S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): The S&P Case Shiller HPI has demonstrated four consecutive months of gains, during which it gained 5%.  However, on a yearly basis both the 10 and 20 city indices are still down roughly 11%.  Nevertheless, according to August’s data 19 of 20 cities reported improvements on their year over year declines.  We can expect to see some continued improvement in September.

10:00 a.m. EST: November’s Consumer Confidence (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence should remain relatively steady after plunging to 47.7 from 53.4 in October.  Last month’s sharp decline was mostly due to concerns over the labor market.  The Bloomberg consensus forecast for November’s release is a marginal decline to 47.0, but I should mention that individual forecasts range from a low of 44.0 to a high of 47.0

10:00 a.m. EST: Third Quarter 2009 and September’s Monthly FHFA Home Price Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) monthly/quarterly house price index is compiled by using loan data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which means all the data within the index consists of conventional mortgages within the limitations of the GSE’s. According to the FHFA’s second quarter report housing prices fell 0.7%on a quarter over a quarter basis, or 6.1% on a yearly basis.  The FHFA’s monthly price index fell for the first time since April in August by -0.3%, but should turn positive again in September. 

10:00 a.m. EST: November’s Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The Richmond Fed manufacturing activity index has been in positive territory since May, but showed some signs of weakness in October falling from 14 to 7.   The new orders index, which tends to be a forward looking component, has fallen for three straight months this could potentially place some additional downward pressure on the headline index.  Aggregate changes in the Fed district’s manufacturing surveys could be a good indicator not only for the country’s economic health, but also ISM performance.

10:00 a.m. EST: State Street Investor Confidence Index (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): The State Street Investor’s Confidence Index measures investors’ tolerance to risk. According to the State Street report, “[Last] month’s, institutional investors have paused to take stock,” commented Froot. “The Global Index reading of 108.4 remains comfortably above the neutral level of 100 for a seventh consecutive month, but underlying flows have been tempered somewhat from the very strong levels of July and August. While the US earnings season has been relatively robust so far, the number of positive surprises that have been observed in employment, retail sales, manufacturing and trade figures has diminished considerably, and this may be influencing investor risk appetite.”

2:00 p.m. EST: FOMC Minutes (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Despite only modest changes in the FOMC’s statement, analysts will likely be looking very closely at the motivation behind these nuances.  In any case, it is unlikely these minutes will provide any groundbreaking new information for market participants.

Wednesday, Nov. 25

7:00 a.m. EST: MBA Mortgage Applications (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): This index, which tracks new mortgage applications tends to be a reasonable forward looking indicator for home sales, but issues including customers filling out numerous applications could skew the index.  Applications fell 2.5% last week after gaining 3.2% a week prior.  Unlike the week prior which saw a precipitous drop in purchase applications while refinance applications remained positive; last week’s data was negative all around, despite lower interest rates.  Refinance applications dropped 1.4%, while purchase applications fell and additional which 4.7%.  A wave of buyers, filling out multiple mortgage applications, that were looking to take advantage of the first time home buyer tax credit–originally set to expire on Nov. 30th–have already completed their transactions, thereby reducing the current demand for mortgages.    However, the recent extension of the first time home buyer tax credit should eventually bring a new set of buyers into the market, which could help support the purchase index over the coming months–don’t forget buying a house can be a long drawn out process.   Nevertheless, increased lending standards for FHA loans, due to the organizations worsening finances, could place some headwinds on the purchase index’s recovery.

8:30 a.m. EST: October’s Durable Goods Orders (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Durable goods should experience a modest increase in October after gaining 1.4% in September on the back of relatively strong machinery and transportation equipment orders.  Weakness in October for civilian aircraft orders should place some pressure on index, with the current Bloomberg consensus forecast expecting a rise of only 0.5%.  It will also be important to keep an eye on the less volatile ex-transport index.

8:30 a.m. EST: October’s Personal Income & Outlays (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): An increment in auto purchases—after dropping sharply upon the expiration of the ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program–should help bolster consumer spending, which fell -0.5% in September.  This release will be important because it will be the first look into the consumer’s fourth quarter spending habits leading into the holiday season.  Personal income is expected to show a modest gain for the month, but still remain down around -2% on a year over year basis.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for an increment in spending of 0.5%, and an increase in income of 0.2%.  At the same time, analysts are anticipating a modest jump in Core PCE of 0.2% after rising 0.1% in September.

8:30 a.m. EST: Jobless Claims (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Initial claims remain unchanged last week at 505K, after falling 12K a week prior. I should note there is again the potential for initial jobless claims slip below the psychological barrier of 500K this week, which could have the potential of at least temporarily influence trading.  Nevertheless, despite second derivative improvements these levels still indicate continued losses for monthly payrolls—albeit at a slower pace—coupled further deterioration to the unemployment rate, which has already exceeded 10%. The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is expecting claims to come in at 504K, essentially unchanged from last week.

9:55 a.m. EST: November’s Final Consumer Sentiment (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): After a disappointing preliminary November release of 66.0, consumer sentiment will likely finish the month up only marginally to what the Bloomberg consensus forecast anticipates will be a level of 67.0.  Like the Conference Board’s measure a weakening job market—albeit at a slower pace—continues to weigh on consumer attitudes.  Also interesting to note is the fact that in every month since June final number has finished higher than the preliminary release.

10:00 a.m. EST: October’s New Home Sales (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Significant): Like existing home sales, new home sales should continue to climb in October, but at a more modest pace.  The primary reason behind this is likely the fact that existing home sales can be bought at a more attractive price compared to their new home counterparts.  The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is for the rate of new home sales to increase to 410K from 402K a month prior.

10:30 a.m. EST: EIA Petroleum Status Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report measures US domestic petroleum inventories.  Large unanticipated swings in this index could have a significant impact on energy prices.  Last week this report showed a decline of -0.9 million barrels versus a gain of 1.8 million barrels a week prior.

12:00 p.m. EST: EIA Natural Gas Report (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Moderate): This report highlights domestic natural gas inventories, which could have a significant impact on the energy sector.

Thursday, Nov. 26

Thanksgiving Markets Closed

Friday, Nov. 27

Black Friday

4:30 p.m. EST: Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply (Risk: Neutral, Market Reaction: Marginal): Since the Fed’s shift to quantitative easing, the balance sheet has become one method to measure to the Fed’s effectiveness.  The market will pay close attention to the reserve bank credit component, which measures factors supplying   providing reserves into the banking system.  The Fed’s balance sheet ballooned last week to US$2.192trn from US$2.117trn a week prior on the back of higher agency and mortgage-backed securities holdings.    The fed’s balance sheet has slowly been shifting away from emergency lending facilities to Treasuries, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities to help moderate long-term interest rates.

Enjoy the weekend!

Retweet